Comments on: Editorial: Demography II – Out of the Death Spiral http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/ Anatoly Karlin on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:11:01 +0000 hourly 1 By: Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-1016 Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion Sat, 23 May 2009 05:08:16 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-1016 [...] a continuing shift from hard spirits to milder alcoholic drinks, a trend I first wrote about in Out of the Death Spiral. (This is significant because almost all of Russia’s abnormally high mortality can be [...] [...] a continuing shift from hard spirits to milder alcoholic drinks, a trend I first wrote about in Out of the Death Spiral. (This is significant because almost all of Russia’s abnormally high mortality can be [...]

]]> By: Official Russia | Rite of Spring: Russia’s Fertility Trends http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-918 Official Russia | Rite of Spring: Russia’s Fertility Trends Fri, 01 May 2009 23:08:27 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-918 [...] from those of late Tsarism. This development is almost entirely attributable to the extreme prevalance of binge drinking of hard spirits. Yet their conclusions don’t follow the [...] [...] from those of late Tsarism. This development is almost entirely attributable to the extreme prevalance of binge drinking of hard spirits. Yet their conclusions don’t follow the [...]

]]> By: Rite of Spring: Russia Fertility Trends | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-882 Rite of Spring: Russia Fertility Trends | Sublime Oblivion Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:20:39 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-882 [...] Future Education as Growth Elixir II Why Obama Will Win Russia's 2nd Oil Peak We Need a Fat Tax! Out of the Death Spiral The Russian Cross Reversed? More Reflections on Election Fraud Lying Liars and their Lies I am a [...] [...] Future Education as Growth Elixir II Why Obama Will Win Russia’s 2nd Oil Peak We Need a Fat Tax! Out of the Death Spiral The Russian Cross Reversed? More Reflections on Election Fraud Lying Liars and their Lies I am a [...]

]]> By: Myth of the Yellow Peril | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-575 Myth of the Yellow Peril | Sublime Oblivion Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:52:58 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-575 [...] essence of Russian demographic doomerism is that in a few decades the AIDS-ravaged, infertile and alcoholic ethnic Russian component will die out and be replaced by hordes of Islamist fanatics in the west [...] [...] essence of Russian demographic doomerism is that in a few decades the AIDS-ravaged, infertile and alcoholic ethnic Russian component will die out and be replaced by hordes of Islamist fanatics in the west [...]

]]> By: Russia Fertility Future | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-341 Russia Fertility Future | Sublime Oblivion Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:03:40 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-341 [...] that hypermortality is Russia’s bane (propagated by Eberstadt, who I’ve criticized here and elsewhere, and not only about this but about his unrealistically high AIDS projections for [...] [...] that hypermortality is Russia’s bane (propagated by Eberstadt, who I’ve criticized here and elsewhere, and not only about this but about his unrealistically high AIDS projections for [...]

]]> By: Oleg Nevestin http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-243 Oleg Nevestin Tue, 22 Apr 2008 03:54:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-243 stalker, your numbers seem to confirm my point. If in RSFSR male lifespan reached 65 yrs, then collapsed to 57 in RF, that's exactly 8 yrs. I wasn't talking about today, but about the differnce between zenith of RSFSR and nadir of RF. stalker, your numbers seem to confirm my point. If in RSFSR male lifespan reached 65 yrs, then collapsed to 57 in RF, that’s exactly 8 yrs. I wasn’t talking about today, but about the differnce between zenith of RSFSR and nadir of RF.

]]> By: stalker http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-237 stalker Mon, 21 Apr 2008 21:00:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-237 BTW, yet more proof for cheap vodka = more mortality causation.<br/><br/>As you all probably know food prices globally have been increasing rapidly since around mid-2007. In Russia, the increase has been about 2x greater in food than in vodka, and by now the food/alcohol price ratio is now comparable to its all time low in 1994, and maybe even lower.<br/><br/>Guess what?<br/><br/>http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b08_00/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/8-0.htm<br/><br/>For Jan-Feb 2008, compared with the same period last yet, 14,600 more people died, a rise of 2.6%. And that's despite continuing healthcare improvements and shifting patterns of alcohol consumption (to beer). BTW, yet more proof for cheap vodka = more mortality causation.

As you all probably know food prices globally have been increasing rapidly since around mid-2007. In Russia, the increase has been about 2x greater in food than in vodka, and by now the food/alcohol price ratio is now comparable to its all time low in 1994, and maybe even lower.

Guess what?

http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b08_00/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/8-0.htm

For Jan-Feb 2008, compared with the same period last yet, 14,600 more people died, a rise of 2.6%. And that’s despite continuing healthcare improvements and shifting patterns of alcohol consumption (to beer).

]]> By: stalker http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-231 stalker Sun, 20 Apr 2008 19:41:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-231 @oleg,<br/><br/>In the RSFSR since 1959, male life expectancy ranged 61-65 years. In the RF has it has ranged 57-62 years. So the gap isn't 8 years as you say, but about 4. Note also that the only times Russia achieved the mid-60's figure after the alcohol epidemic took off was in 1986-88 (period of anti-alcohol campaign).<br/><br/>Women life longer than men by 5-8 years in every industrial nation. The fact that in Russia this differential is more like 12-14 years is due to the fact that in Russia, about 60% of men smoke compared to about 10% of women, and drinking rates are much higher as well - i.e. relative to average Russian women, average Russian men life more unhealthily than the average American man to the average American woman.<br/><br/>Collapse in morale does not necessarily have to result in decreasing life expectancy. LE in 1930's America and 1980's Latin America continued increasing regardless of economic depression. On the other hand in the Russian case liberalization led to massive drops in alcohol prices, which encouraged consumption, which as I've written here is very closely correlated to mortality in Russia, especially amongst ethnic Russian men.<br/><br/>I dispute your assertion that women life for children and men for their country. The former trumps the latter by far for pretty much everyone I've ever met of both sexes.<br/><br/>@djp,<br/><br/>As above. Few people die from being depressed or pessimistic, they die from heart attacks, cancer and accidents caused by bad lifestyles. @oleg,

In the RSFSR since 1959, male life expectancy ranged 61-65 years. In the RF has it has ranged 57-62 years. So the gap isn’t 8 years as you say, but about 4. Note also that the only times Russia achieved the mid-60’s figure after the alcohol epidemic took off was in 1986-88 (period of anti-alcohol campaign).

Women life longer than men by 5-8 years in every industrial nation. The fact that in Russia this differential is more like 12-14 years is due to the fact that in Russia, about 60% of men smoke compared to about 10% of women, and drinking rates are much higher as well – i.e. relative to average Russian women, average Russian men life more unhealthily than the average American man to the average American woman.

Collapse in morale does not necessarily have to result in decreasing life expectancy. LE in 1930’s America and 1980’s Latin America continued increasing regardless of economic depression. On the other hand in the Russian case liberalization led to massive drops in alcohol prices, which encouraged consumption, which as I’ve written here is very closely correlated to mortality in Russia, especially amongst ethnic Russian men.

I dispute your assertion that women life for children and men for their country. The former trumps the latter by far for pretty much everyone I’ve ever met of both sexes.

@djp,

As above. Few people die from being depressed or pessimistic, they die from heart attacks, cancer and accidents caused by bad lifestyles.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-229 Anonymous Sat, 19 Apr 2008 22:01:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-229 Stalker,<br/><br/>I am in agreement with Oleg. It is obvious to me as a foreigner that it was the collapse of society that led to the early deaths of many. Alcoholism and smoking are just manifestations of this not the cause. As society becomes stronger people will turn away naturally, but good goverment policy can help.<br/><br/>DJP Stalker,

I am in agreement with Oleg. It is obvious to me as a foreigner that it was the collapse of society that led to the early deaths of many. Alcoholism and smoking are just manifestations of this not the cause. As society becomes stronger people will turn away naturally, but good goverment policy can help.

DJP

]]> By: Oleg Nevestin http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/04/14/editorial-demography-ii-out-of-the-death-spiral/#comment-228 Oleg Nevestin Sat, 19 Apr 2008 21:26:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=43#comment-228 stalker, I thought it could be misconstrued that way, but, again, what I implied is that since Russian men are subject to the same everyday factors of life as Russian women, yet live so much less, then something beyond these factors must be at work. There are not enough vodka and cigarettes in this world to achieve such a discrepancy in the length of life. From my point of view, it's the collapse of Russia itself that led to self-destructiveness of Russian men. Women live for their children, men live for their country. Take men's pride away, and you don't need to kill them anymore, they'll kill themselves. Not necessarily by putting a gun to their head, but by simply not attaching any value to their own lives - and adopting a corresponding lifestyle. That's what happened in 1990s.<br/> I do agree that lousy high-calorie, low-nutrition food, and excessive smoking/drinking add to the plight of Russian men, but clearly these phenomena can't explain it away. All of this was plenty present in USSR, when men lived 8 years longer on average. stalker, I thought it could be misconstrued that way, but, again, what I implied is that since Russian men are subject to the same everyday factors of life as Russian women, yet live so much less, then something beyond these factors must be at work. There are not enough vodka and cigarettes in this world to achieve such a discrepancy in the length of life. From my point of view, it’s the collapse of Russia itself that led to self-destructiveness of Russian men. Women live for their children, men live for their country. Take men’s pride away, and you don’t need to kill them anymore, they’ll kill themselves. Not necessarily by putting a gun to their head, but by simply not attaching any value to their own lives – and adopting a corresponding lifestyle. That’s what happened in 1990s.
I do agree that lousy high-calorie, low-nutrition food, and excessive smoking/drinking add to the plight of Russian men, but clearly these phenomena can’t explain it away. All of this was plenty present in USSR, when men lived 8 years longer on average.

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