Current reliable sources say no real new oil discoveries have been made in Russia recently, but our information in the western world is incomplete. Given the vast expanses of Russia and the sea, there may be another 50 billion barrels, but much more than that is very unlikely.

AK responds: Thanks for the comments, Jens (I have merged them into one).

This is indeed the central problem of oil extraction – because of geological realities, you always have to keep accelerating to stay at the same spot. Much of the easy to get oil is being depleted and new sources are remoter, deeper and much more expensive (not only in monetary, but most importantly energy terms) to extract. The Arctic and Brazilian oil presupposes that the technology will be developed and implemented, and even then these new finds will come nowhere close to replacing the old super-giants in either quantity or quality. I completely agree with your implication that Russian oil production is going to go into terminal decline, probably from this year on, and that any future discoveries will be too small to make a difference (and assuming that their exploitation remains exergy-profitable, which is far from assured).

what do people in Russia think of Chubais comments that Russia should basically cancel nord stream and south stream and concentrate on meeting domestic demand. I advocated this position a few months back

DJP

About Brazil find:

Brazil Oil Trapped by 500-Degree Heat, Salt Barrier (Update2)

April 28 (Bloomberg) — Brazil’s plan to become one of the world’s biggest oil exporters hinges on exploiting crude 6 miles below the ocean surface in deposits so hot they can melt the metal used to carry uranium to nuclear plants.

Tapping what may be the biggest oil finds in the Western Hemisphere in three decades will require equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck, pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) and drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick.

full article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aoC91kszkcf4&refer=home

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2006&ey=2013&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=946%2C964%2C922%2C939%2C944%2C926%2C111%2C941&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=0&a=&pr1.x=46&pr1.y=4

Growth 2006-2013:

Russia: 7.400 8.100 6.800 6.300 6.000 5.900 5.800 5.600

Latvia: 11.925 10.243 3.624 0.453 0.276 1.288 2.154 3.045

Estonia: 11.188 7.111 3.020 3.711 4.871 5.141 5.149 5.157

Ukraine: 7.100 7.303 5.576 4.159 3.518 4.558 5.378 6.514

USA: 2.871 2.189 0.517 0.561 2.878 3.740 3.480 3.162