Comments on: Editorial: Demography III – Faces of the Future http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/ Anatoly Karlin on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil Sat, 11 Feb 2012 19:19:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: dimitri http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-2537 dimitri Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:02:55 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-2537 also i think you should consider non quantitative factors that might have a bearing on russian population growth, specifically the resurgence of the orthodox chrurch and "traditional" family structure being promoted by russian government. "traditional" russian families were very big (19th century saw big rus population explosion) and yes though soviet era changed attitudes to this the resurgence of "russia proper" might well see increasing "orthodox" family size in a similar way catholic birth rates are accepted to be higher. also i think you should consider non quantitative factors that might have a bearing on russian population growth, specifically the resurgence of the orthodox chrurch and “traditional” family structure being promoted by russian government. “traditional” russian families were very big (19th century saw big rus population explosion) and yes though soviet era changed attitudes to this the resurgence of “russia proper” might well see increasing “orthodox” family size in a similar way catholic birth rates are accepted to be higher.

]]> By: Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-1022 Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion Sat, 23 May 2009 18:46:47 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-1022 [...] These positive drinking trends are coupled with continued government investment into the National Priority Project on health, which funds the construction of a network of hi-tech medical centers, acquisition of new oncological equipment and healthy lifestyle promotion. As such, we can be pretty certain that unlike in prior downturns - the mortality explosion during the post-Soviet hyperdepression and the mortality spike after the 1998 Crash - there will be no increase in the number of deaths, and quite possibly even a substantial decrease. The prediction? Relative to 14.8 / 1000 in 2008, the mortality rate for 2009 will not exceed 15.0 / 1000 (low scenario) and may be better than 14.5 / 1000 (the medium scenario). The best case is 14.0 / 1000. Subsequent years will see a general trend towards improvement. [...] [...] These positive drinking trends are coupled with continued government investment into the National Priority Project on health, which funds the construction of a network of hi-tech medical centers, acquisition of new oncological equipment and healthy lifestyle promotion. As such, we can be pretty certain that unlike in prior downturns – the mortality explosion during the post-Soviet hyperdepression and the mortality spike after the 1998 Crash – there will be no increase in the number of deaths, and quite possibly even a substantial decrease. The prediction? Relative to 14.8 / 1000 in 2008, the mortality rate for 2009 will not exceed 15.0 / 1000 (low scenario) and may be better than 14.5 / 1000 (the medium scenario). The best case is 14.0 / 1000. Subsequent years will see a general trend towards improvement. [...]

]]> By: Rite of Spring: Russia Fertility Trends | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-842 Rite of Spring: Russia Fertility Trends | Sublime Oblivion Sun, 26 Apr 2009 12:31:57 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-842 [...] preclude it from maintaining near replacement level demographics until its dissolution. In my own simulations of Russia’s demographic future, even small changes in the TFR have bigger long-term impacts than major changes in mortality [...] [...] preclude it from maintaining near replacement level demographics until its dissolution. In my own simulations of Russia’s demographic future, even small changes in the TFR have bigger long-term impacts than major changes in mortality [...]

]]> By: Grenade Fishing on the Potomac | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-817 Grenade Fishing on the Potomac | Sublime Oblivion Tue, 21 Apr 2009 05:37:10 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-817 [...] in his article, this is “more of a labor-market challenge than a demographic crisis”. My own dependency ratio projections are far from cataclysmic. The notion of a Russian AIDS Apocalypse is a myth, because according to [...] [...] in his article, this is “more of a labor-market challenge than a demographic crisis”. My own dependency ratio projections are far from cataclysmic. The notion of a Russian AIDS Apocalypse is a myth, because according to [...]

]]> By: Da Russophile, A Year On | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-449 Da Russophile, A Year On | Sublime Oblivion Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:33:31 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-449 [...] wisdom about Russia. Contrarian pieces like Top 10 Russophobe Myths, Lying Liars and their Lies and Faces of the Future (my deconstruction of Russian demographic details, which show that the situation is far from the [...] [...] wisdom about Russia. Contrarian pieces like Top 10 Russophobe Myths, Lying Liars and their Lies and Faces of the Future (my deconstruction of Russian demographic details, which show that the situation is far from the [...]

]]> By: Russia’s Fertility Future | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-340 Russia’s Fertility Future | Sublime Oblivion Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:58:28 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-340 [...] The excellent demographic journal Demoscope has an extensive discussion of fertility trends in Russia. Some of it backs my own views in Demography I - The Russian Cross Reversed? and consequently, the assumptions behind the future demographic projections in Demography III - Faces of the Future. [...] [...] The excellent demographic journal Demoscope has an extensive discussion of fertility trends in Russia. Some of it backs my own views in Demography I – The Russian Cross Reversed? and consequently, the assumptions behind the future demographic projections in Demography III – Faces of the Future. [...]

]]> By: Nobody http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-281 Nobody Sun, 10 Aug 2008 21:29:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-281 BTW Stalker<br/><br/>Can you please rerun your model for my medium impr. scenario. What do the dynamics of the working age population look like according to your model? BTW Stalker

Can you please rerun your model for my medium impr. scenario. What do the dynamics of the working age population look like according to your model?

]]> By: Nobody http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-280 Nobody Sat, 09 Aug 2008 14:23:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-280 As a matter of fact I think it's impossible to predict demographic trends for such long periods as 40-50 years. TFRs and other demographic indicators have been shown to be too volatile to allow this. It should be something like 20-25 years. So beyond 2030 it's pure speculations As a matter of fact I think it’s impossible to predict demographic trends for such long periods as 40-50 years. TFRs and other demographic indicators have been shown to be too volatile to allow this. It should be something like 20-25 years. So beyond 2030 it’s pure speculations

]]> By: Nobody http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-279 Nobody Sat, 09 Aug 2008 13:54:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-279 I understand your logic about the desired family size but the thing is that I know about no country in the world in which the ideal family size coincides with the actual TFR. The difference is usually at least 0.5/0.7 children per woman. In some extreme cases it can be even more dramatic. If I remember it right the ideal family size was estimated at 2.7 for Ireland but the TFR was something like 1.7. In some developed nations this differential is reaching 1.2-1.3. I understand your logic about the desired family size but the thing is that I know about no country in the world in which the ideal family size coincides with the actual TFR. The difference is usually at least 0.5/0.7 children per woman. In some extreme cases it can be even more dramatic. If I remember it right the ideal family size was estimated at 2.7 for Ireland but the TFR was something like 1.7. In some developed nations this differential is reaching 1.2-1.3.

]]> By: stalker http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/07/21/editorial-demography-iii-faces-of-the-future/#comment-278 stalker Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:35:00 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=48#comment-278 @nobody,<br/><br/>My Medium and High scenarios were taken from Russian population surveys of the "planned" and "desired" number of children, respectively, as covered in the Demography I post. I agree however that assuming Russia's fertility values have aligned with those of Europe then they are unrealistically high, as you rightly point out. (Albeit I did take that into account, kind of; if you notice, in the Medium scenario, the TFR falls from 2.0 to 1.7 from 2025 to 2050.)<br/><br/>Anyway I've run the simulation for your fertility figures, but where Immigration and Mortality trends remain the same as in <i>my</i> Medium scenario (0.025 mortality convergence, 300000 immigrants annually). Your fertility figures are attained in 2010 and remain constant ever after.<br/><br/>Low (TFR=1.5 from 2010)<br/><br/>Population growth starts from 2011, going from 142mn to 143mn by 2023. Then it falls slowly to 138mn by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 12.5 in 2013, falls sharply to 7.8 by 2032, and then remains in the 8-9 range. The death rate troughs at 11.4 in 2032, then rises to 12.9 by 2050. Positive natural increase is never attained. <br/><br/>Medium (TFR=1.75 from 2010)<br/><br/>The population grows from 2010, rising from 142mn to 148mn in 2025 and 156mn in 2050. The death rate troughs at 10.8 in 2034, before zooming in to 11.5 by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 13.6 by 2014, before plummeting to 9.7 in 2033, before recovering to 11.9 in 2046 and again falling, although less rapidly than before.<br/><br/>High (TFR=2.0 from 2010)<br/><br/>From 2008, population grows, reaching 154mn in 2025 and 175mn in 2050. The birth rate remains significantly higher than the death rate throughout the period.<br/><br/>About immigration, I believe only well-qualified people with secular values should be allowed in who can be expected to make a well above average contribution to the economy. I believe the Australian policy on this is laudable. @nobody,

My Medium and High scenarios were taken from Russian population surveys of the “planned” and “desired” number of children, respectively, as covered in the Demography I post. I agree however that assuming Russia’s fertility values have aligned with those of Europe then they are unrealistically high, as you rightly point out. (Albeit I did take that into account, kind of; if you notice, in the Medium scenario, the TFR falls from 2.0 to 1.7 from 2025 to 2050.)

Anyway I’ve run the simulation for your fertility figures, but where Immigration and Mortality trends remain the same as in my Medium scenario (0.025 mortality convergence, 300000 immigrants annually). Your fertility figures are attained in 2010 and remain constant ever after.

Low (TFR=1.5 from 2010)

Population growth starts from 2011, going from 142mn to 143mn by 2023. Then it falls slowly to 138mn by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 12.5 in 2013, falls sharply to 7.8 by 2032, and then remains in the 8-9 range. The death rate troughs at 11.4 in 2032, then rises to 12.9 by 2050. Positive natural increase is never attained.

Medium (TFR=1.75 from 2010)

The population grows from 2010, rising from 142mn to 148mn in 2025 and 156mn in 2050. The death rate troughs at 10.8 in 2034, before zooming in to 11.5 by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 13.6 by 2014, before plummeting to 9.7 in 2033, before recovering to 11.9 in 2046 and again falling, although less rapidly than before.

High (TFR=2.0 from 2010)

From 2008, population grows, reaching 154mn in 2025 and 175mn in 2050. The birth rate remains significantly higher than the death rate throughout the period.

About immigration, I believe only well-qualified people with secular values should be allowed in who can be expected to make a well above average contribution to the economy. I believe the Australian policy on this is laudable.

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