Comments on: Russia’s Fertility Future http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/ Anatoly Karlin on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil Sat, 11 Feb 2012 16:07:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Quanbao Jiang http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-2955 Quanbao Jiang Sat, 12 Dec 2009 11:31:39 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-2955 Dear colleague, Could you send me the data in these figures? I need them badly Best wishes Quanbao Jiang Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an China Dear colleague,
Could you send me the data in these figures?
I need them badly
Best wishes
Quanbao Jiang
Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an China

]]> By: Grenade Fishing on the Potomac | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-820 Grenade Fishing on the Potomac | Sublime Oblivion Tue, 21 Apr 2009 05:53:36 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-820 [...] steadily creeping up from 1.3 children per woman in 2006, to around 1.5 as of 2008 - and there is plenty of evidence this is a sustainable trend. Similarly, no mention is made of the mortality decline from 2005 and [...] [...] steadily creeping up from 1.3 children per woman in 2006, to around 1.5 as of 2008 – and there is plenty of evidence this is a sustainable trend. Similarly, no mention is made of the mortality decline from 2005 and [...]

]]> By: Rickky http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-739 Rickky Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:27:24 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-739 South Korea alreadt have dropped it's TFR from 1.25 to 1.19 for Y2008. I expect huge drop further this year - probably to 1.05-1.10. Moreover, the overall fertility rise in europe and East Asia in recent years could have halted rather sharply. It means that the lowest low point in fertility which was acieved in mid-90's, still here... South Korea alreadt have dropped it’s TFR from 1.25 to 1.19 for Y2008. I expect huge drop further this year – probably to 1.05-1.10.
Moreover, the overall fertility rise in europe and East Asia in recent years could have halted rather sharply. It means that the lowest low point in fertility which was acieved in mid-90′s, still here…

]]> By: AK http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-689 AK Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:23:14 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-689 Ricky, the monthly fluctuations are pretty big so I think we need to wait at least a few more months before making proper conjectures. But it's good you're keeping watch. Ricky, the monthly fluctuations are pretty big so I think we need to wait at least a few more months before making proper conjectures. But it’s good you’re keeping watch.

]]> By: Rickky http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-686 Rickky Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:35:01 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-686 Let's see what crisis will do with fertility in Latvia, Estonia, Japan... Let’s see what crisis will do with fertility in Latvia, Estonia, Japan…

]]> By: Rickky http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-685 Rickky Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:34:05 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-685 I use my own calculations of CBR/TFR ratio, which in general reflects the share of women in childbearing age, weighted by fertility in each age group. The fertility already has fallen by 3.8% in Jan., though the crisis hit in October, so, I probably underestimated the falling. TFR could dip even below 1.4 this year amd below 1.35in 2010. Which means we could see less than 141m by the 2010 Census. But fortunately, deaths have fallen by 15% in Jan. which probably means that crisis may not affect mortality, as all previous crisises did not affect mortality in western countries. Russia probably can have LE higher than 68 years in a whole in 2009. I just guess, but I used several models before. Almost everything depends on immigration. I use my own calculations of CBR/TFR ratio, which in general reflects the share of women in childbearing age, weighted by fertility in each age group. The fertility already has fallen by 3.8% in Jan., though the crisis hit in October, so, I probably underestimated the falling. TFR could dip even below 1.4 this year amd below 1.35in 2010. Which means we could see less than 141m by the 2010 Census. But fortunately, deaths have fallen by 15% in Jan. which probably means that crisis may not affect mortality, as all previous crisises did not affect mortality in western countries. Russia probably can have LE higher than 68 years in a whole in 2009. I just guess, but I used several models before. Almost everything depends on immigration.

]]> By: Myth of the Yellow Peril | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-574 Myth of the Yellow Peril | Sublime Oblivion Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:52:21 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-574 [...] essence of Russian demographic doomerism is that in a few decades the AIDS-ravaged, infertile and alcoholic ethnic Russian component will die out and be replaced by hordes of Islamist fanatics [...] [...] essence of Russian demographic doomerism is that in a few decades the AIDS-ravaged, infertile and alcoholic ethnic Russian component will die out and be replaced by hordes of Islamist fanatics [...]

]]> By: AK http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-572 AK Tue, 03 Mar 2009 20:52:33 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-572 I agree with your general idea that fertility is probably going to fall in the next two years and that immigration is certainly going to fall, although I am not so certain on life expectancy (there are two conflicting trends here, one is the tendency for hard drinking to up during economic downturns, the other is the accelerating improvement in Russian healthcare). Out of curiosity, how did you come up with all these detailed figures - did you use a model, or are they educated guesses? I agree with your general idea that fertility is probably going to fall in the next two years and that immigration is certainly going to fall, although I am not so certain on life expectancy (there are two conflicting trends here, one is the tendency for hard drinking to up during economic downturns, the other is the accelerating improvement in Russian healthcare).

Out of curiosity, how did you come up with all these detailed figures – did you use a model, or are they educated guesses?

]]> By: Rickky http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2008/12/01/russias-fertility-future/#comment-571 Rickky Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:13:24 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=360#comment-571 As 1717500 children were born in 2008 in Russia, the TFR preliminary calculated by myself was approx. 1.5035 that year which is the highest value after 1992. However, 2008 was the last economically stable year, and surely the fertility will drop, especially for the 2HY'09. I expect TFR from 1.43 to 1.47 this year and from 1.34 to 1.42 in 2010. Fertility growth could resume after 2010. Life expectancy was approx. 67.7 years in 2008, 0.2 year higher than in 2007 and 2.4 year higher than in 2005. I expect drop in LE this year to 67.1-67.5 and next year to 66.5-67.2. Migration balance which reached 250k will sharlpy drop probably to 100-180k this year. So, depopulation will grow again, from -121k in 2008 to 300-350k this year and 400-450k in 2010. Current stats fixed 141.89m on 01.01.2009, will probalby have 141.55 at the end of 2009 and 141.12 at the end of 2010. So 2010 Census should count approx. 141.2m on mid-october. Which gives us prognosis for 135-137 million in 2025. But I personally think this census will count 1-3 milion more, due to illegal immigration, upto 142-144 million, and then 2025 figure could be revised to 139-145 million and 2050 to 133-150 million. I think the overall population will not change significantly by 2050 mostly due to immigration, but sparsely populated territories will depopulate more, and most populated regions will gain population, absorb it. As 1717500 children were born in 2008 in Russia, the TFR preliminary calculated by myself was approx. 1.5035 that year which is the highest value after 1992. However, 2008 was the last economically stable year, and surely the fertility will drop, especially for the 2HY’09. I expect TFR from 1.43 to 1.47 this year and from 1.34 to 1.42 in 2010. Fertility growth could resume after 2010. Life expectancy was approx. 67.7 years in 2008, 0.2 year higher than in 2007 and 2.4 year higher than in 2005. I expect drop in LE this year to 67.1-67.5 and next year to 66.5-67.2. Migration balance which reached 250k will sharlpy drop probably to 100-180k this year. So, depopulation will grow again, from -121k in 2008 to 300-350k this year and 400-450k in 2010. Current stats fixed 141.89m on 01.01.2009, will probalby have 141.55 at the end of 2009 and 141.12 at the end of 2010. So 2010 Census should count approx. 141.2m on mid-october. Which gives us prognosis for 135-137 million in 2025. But I personally think this census will count 1-3 milion more, due to illegal immigration, upto 142-144 million, and then 2025 figure could be revised to 139-145 million and 2050 to 133-150 million. I think the overall population will not change significantly by 2050 mostly due to immigration, but sparsely populated territories will depopulate more, and most populated regions will gain population, absorb it.

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