Comments on: New Year Special: Year in Review and 2009 Predictions http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/01/02/2009-predictions/ Anatoly Karlin on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil Sat, 11 Feb 2012 16:07:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/01/02/2009-predictions/#comment-1015 Russia’s Demographic Resilience | Sublime Oblivion Sat, 23 May 2009 05:08:01 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=531#comment-1015 [...] is not a new idea - in my 2009 predictions, I forecast: In Russia, the birth rate will be between 11.5 and 12.5 / 1000, the death rate at 14.5 [...] [...] is not a new idea – in my 2009 predictions, I forecast: In Russia, the birth rate will be between 11.5 and 12.5 / 1000, the death rate at 14.5 [...]

]]> By: Comrade Kasparov - Charlatan or Bolshevik? | Sublime Oblivion http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/01/02/2009-predictions/#comment-588 Comrade Kasparov - Charlatan or Bolshevik? | Sublime Oblivion Fri, 06 Mar 2009 04:31:08 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=531#comment-588 [...] only real “evidence” of unrest I’ve come across were the small, mafia-linked and unauthorized Vladivostok protests by car dealers three months ago. The Western press has been recycling this single event ever since. [...] [...] only real “evidence” of unrest I’ve come across were the small, mafia-linked and unauthorized Vladivostok protests by car dealers three months ago. The Western press has been recycling this single event ever since. [...]

]]> By: Mark Winston http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/01/02/2009-predictions/#comment-416 Mark Winston Fri, 09 Jan 2009 23:06:37 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=531#comment-416 [The inflation rate will start rising at a worrying pace, and may exceed 10% by year-end.] Do you mean official or real? I'd argue that real US inflation has been around 10% or higher for years, there's just a bunch of official adjustments made to it that understate it so that we can show we're growing even as people have to dip into both savings and debt concurrently just to maintain yesterday's standard of living... <b>AK responds</b>: I mean official, of course, since the "real" rate cannot really be measured. It's true that there are people, like those at <a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/" rel="nofollow">ShadowStats</a>, who make some rather convincing arguments to this effect; on the other hand, there's also opinion amongst professional economists that inflation is actually overestimated due to unaccounted-for technological improvements. So perhaps these cancel out, and the official rate really is the real rate. :) PS I added your site to the blogroll, Mark. [The inflation rate will start rising at a worrying pace, and may exceed 10% by year-end.]

Do you mean official or real? I’d argue that real US inflation has been around 10% or higher for years, there’s just a bunch of official adjustments made to it that understate it so that we can show we’re growing even as people have to dip into both savings and debt concurrently just to maintain yesterday’s standard of living…

AK responds: I mean official, of course, since the “real” rate cannot really be measured. It’s true that there are people, like those at ShadowStats, who make some rather convincing arguments to this effect; on the other hand, there’s also opinion amongst professional economists that inflation is actually overestimated due to unaccounted-for technological improvements. So perhaps these cancel out, and the official rate really is the real rate. :)
PS I added your site to the blogroll, Mark.

]]> By: andrew http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/01/02/2009-predictions/#comment-391 andrew Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:54:15 +0000 http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=531#comment-391 GDP already over 9000 <b>AK responds</b>: Can you please make your comment a bit more substantive. EDIT: Oh you probably mean the Dow which has broken 9000. That was a poorly worded prediction - damn. Temporary recoveries will happen but I expect it to stay below that figure for most of this period. GDP already over 9000

AK responds: Can you please make your comment a bit more substantive.
EDIT: Oh you probably mean the Dow which has broken 9000. That was a poorly worded prediction – damn. Temporary recoveries will happen but I expect it to stay below that figure for most of this period.

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