http://www.globalresearch.ca

We must let our guard down, however – as I said, it could come back in a few months with a vengeance.

“It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.”

Seems that the main concern remains H5N1.

I actually do feel quite a bit better – far from normal, but not all screwed up either. Probably it was either some minor bug, as you say, or perhaps a really mild case of this virus. I don’t know, it’s weird. There seem to be multiple diseases going around at the moment, at least if Facebook statuses are anything to go by.

The problem with some pandemics is not the initially low numbers of deaths, or course, but the fact that some have a tendency of mushrooming to thousands and tens of thousands and millions before long. Swine flu appears to be easing, with no new US deaths today. Whether that is because its virulence really is very low, or perhaps it is hibernating for the summer and will re-emerge in a stronger form in the autumn, or something else, probably no-one knows.

Good genes, diet, sleep and exercise in as clean an environment as possible serve as the best barrier against such symptoms.

I recently developed an especially out of season cough that’s about done.

If anyone knows, what was up with Letterman last night? He had a VERY sore throat. I missed the explanation. If the show wasn’t taped from weeks ago and his sore throat hasn’t been diagnosed, he’s not setting a good example.

Sorry you’re sick. One quick note: for confirmed cases, note that you’d actually have to have the specific H1N1 flu that’s going around. I know your symptoms all too well, from very personal experience – from a flu bug I caught back in early March that had nothing to do with H1N1.

Alas and alack, it does take awhile to run those tests. I’m reminded of this PhD comic (from your backyard):
If TV Science Was More Like REAL Science
http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1156

Confirmatory tests (i.e., PCR DNA with the right reagents for this particular sequencing)? Yeah, that’s an overnighter – which can happen in only a very few labs (most labs don’t have any use for the kind of analytical equipment needed to differentiate types of influenza A). So, add in travel time, etc., and it’s not at all surprising that it takes awhile.

Methinks that we’ve become far too used to having exactly what we want exactly when we want it (I blame teh intertubes for this cult of immediate gratification). We forget that something like getting a confirmatory DNA sequence for a specific blood sample requires (a) taking the sample, (b) having it picked up from the doctor’s office, (c) having it sent to a CLIA lab that actually does *this specific* test (and, thus, has *these particular* reagents and setup), and (d) having it wait in line as the samples that came before get processed.

All *that* said, remember that we’re still talking something far fewer than 1,000 deaths so far *worldwide.* Flu deaths in the US in an average year = about 36,000. We’re nowhere near society-rending levels, IMHO.

Get plenty of bed rest, enjoy your oseltamivir, hit Hulu (“Kings” is excellent, if you haven’t seen it yet), drink plenty of water, keep yourself fed, and pop them NSAIDs to reduce fever. Oh – and keep posting on UT.

Poka!

yrs,
twicker

It’s one thing looking at this pandemic spreading on a map and reading World Bank reports it will cause a 5% drop in global GDP. It’s another thing when it hits you.

Right now I have: bad cough; sore throat; headache; alternating chills and heats; elevated heart rate; dehydration; fatigue. Since I live in the Bay Area, near the epicenter, and very rarely fall sick, I think I can be excused for strongly suspecting this is something a bit more than a regular bug. I will take further appropriate action next morning, so don’t worry about me. Instead, read on.

A few observations:

1) From an acquaintance, who also happens to be infected, people in Mountain View are falling sick like flies. Another acquaintance from Oakland reports sick, and now I guess there’s myself. But as of right now a look at the Pandemic Map shows there are just 4 probable cases in Santa Clara Country. From what I can tell, there are just 9 confirmed or possible cases in the whole Bay Area. I smell a rat .

2) Consequently, this disease is a) extremely contagious and b) health organizations, governments and the media are either really slow or really deceptive. I don’t know which would be worse.

The WHO in particular comes in for opprobrium, being so slow in raising the alarm and not recommending border closures. It is a political organization controlled by folks who are more concerned with maintaining trade and corporate profits than with… well, world health. Certainly its current posturing over “It’s only 7 dead!! according to lab-confirmed cases that is”, is deceitful and amoral. It’s like observing the aftermath of a modern battlefield and claiming no-one got shot until after conducting an autopsy on every corpse.

Then again, perhaps I’m too harsh. It’s possible this disease is so contagious, even that wouldn’t have done any good. IF that’s the case, I strongly suspect there are now at least tens of thousands of infected in the US; next week there will be hundreds of thousands; after that, millions (assuming the coming of summer or something like that doesn’t curb it). And as I said in my post, the economy and society is currently fragile, and can shatter if shocked. Then again the plague may become all obvious pretty soon enough, and that revelation will then strike at confidence and civilization all the harder.

3) Need I remind you it’s contagious? Since Sunday, I stockpiled food in my room, curtailed social contact and maintained high hygienic standards. However, from what I’ve dug up it seems that overt symptoms only begin around 5 days after infection, and for part of that period, you are infectious.

4) So I guess I just got unlucky. On the bright side, assuming rumors of already overflowing hospital beds prove unfounded, I may get professional medical treatment. And for reasons that should be obvious, I am hoping even more that when I first wrote this post, that apparently very high case mortality rates of 6% are in fact greatly inflated due to unreported cases. This is what the System is emphasizing. But given the past few days and my attempts to approach what people say in a Bayesian way, I can’t say I trust them 100%.

5) We’ll know whether or not we’re fucked within the next week. Meanwhile, fuck your job (unless essential for society), certainly fuck your school, get supplies and hold on tight.

6) As for me, I’ll now start reading what is probably a very appropriate book for the occasion – “The Plague” by Albert Camus.

Ministry of Health has announced the arrival of a number of suspected cases of bird flu in humans on Monday, 30 human cases between the ages of two and up to 73 years, including 10 cases of province of Kafr el-Sheikh and Alexandria, 4 and 3 in the West and 2 in both Cairo and Damietta, October 6, Aswan and one case each in Minya and Qena, the lake and the eastern and Dakahliya.

Not good. Double whammy, anyone?

Especially alarming would if the contagious swine flu and super-virulent avian flu were to combine…then we’d be truly screwed.

EDIT: 12 hours later, Egypt says it is culling its entire stock of 400,000 pigs. Is it a valid public health measure? A misguided attempt to help, but which actually increases human-pig contact and the chances of a deadly recombination? A bow before the wishes of the sharia people who don’t like pigs because they’re unclean? What do you think?