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	<title>Comments on: Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True</title>
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	<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/</link>
	<description>Anatoly Karlin on Eurasia, geopolitics, and peak oil</description>
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		<title>By: Through the Looking Glass at Russia&#8217;s Demography &#124; Sublime Oblivion</title>
		<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/#comment-2333</link>
		<dc:creator>Through the Looking Glass at Russia&#8217;s Demography &#124; Sublime Oblivion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:27:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=1142#comment-2333</guid>
		<description>[...] increased fertility, mortality reduction and continued immigration. Despite temporary setbacks, Russia retains solid prospects for growth – a well-educated people, an extensive industrial infrastructure, growing centers of innovation [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] increased fertility, mortality reduction and continued immigration. Despite temporary setbacks, Russia retains solid prospects for growth – a well-educated people, an extensive industrial infrastructure, growing centers of innovation [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Review of “The Prodigal Superpower” (S. Rosefielde) &#124; Sublime Oblivion</title>
		<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/#comment-1472</link>
		<dc:creator>Review of “The Prodigal Superpower” (S. Rosefielde) &#124; Sublime Oblivion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 03:10:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=1142#comment-1472</guid>
		<description>[...] and indeed Russia remains substantially ahead today. Instead, as I argue in my article Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True, its impressive human capital, macroeconomic rationalism and energy windfalls stand Russia in good [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] and indeed Russia remains substantially ahead today. Instead, as I argue in my article Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True, its impressive human capital, macroeconomic rationalism and energy windfalls stand Russia in good [...]</p>
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		<title>By: AK</title>
		<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/#comment-1146</link>
		<dc:creator>AK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 00:17:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>@djp,

Though your optimism is commendable, coming 3rd in GDP would require overtaking both India (with its 1.1bn people now moving into full-scale industrialization) and Japan (which is already a fully-developed and very technologically advanced nation) - which I don&#039;t see happening by 2020.

Overtaking Japan may be just about possible by the 2020&#039;s given that Japan is burdened with a rapidly aging population which is predicted to fall at an accelerating pace from now on, which dooms it to long-term economic stagnation (its dependence on foreign energy imports is also going to be increasingly risky in a post-peak oil world, and it would probably have to re-militarize - canceling out the economic advantages of its old pacifism). However, I don&#039;t see Russia overtaking India any time soon and expect the relative gap between them to continue growing, especially after 2020. It would take some kind of Indian subsistence crisis or collapse to reverse these trends, which is admittedly a real possibility by the 2030&#039;s due to depleting fossil aquifers and melting Himalayan icecaps barring major technological or geo-engineering breakthroughs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@djp,</p>
<p>Though your optimism is commendable, coming 3rd in GDP would require overtaking both India (with its 1.1bn people now moving into full-scale industrialization) and Japan (which is already a fully-developed and very technologically advanced nation) &#8211; which I don&#8217;t see happening by 2020.</p>
<p>Overtaking Japan may be just about possible by the 2020&#8242;s given that Japan is burdened with a rapidly aging population which is predicted to fall at an accelerating pace from now on, which dooms it to long-term economic stagnation (its dependence on foreign energy imports is also going to be increasingly risky in a post-peak oil world, and it would probably have to re-militarize &#8211; canceling out the economic advantages of its old pacifism). However, I don&#8217;t see Russia overtaking India any time soon and expect the relative gap between them to continue growing, especially after 2020. It would take some kind of Indian subsistence crisis or collapse to reverse these trends, which is admittedly a real possibility by the 2030&#8242;s due to depleting fossil aquifers and melting Himalayan icecaps barring major technological or geo-engineering breakthroughs.</p>
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		<title>By: djp</title>
		<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/#comment-1138</link>
		<dc:creator>djp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:18:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=1142#comment-1138</guid>
		<description>by 2020

#1 or 2 Agricultural exporter - if Russian agriculture grows at 6% a year it will pass the USA as the biggest exporter by 2020 6% is a reasonable if not conservative estimate.
largest car manufacturing center in Europe
#1 in nuclear reactor production
#1 in nuclear fuel
global player in civil aviation with superjet 100 and ms-21
#1 military hardware exporter
#2 oil producer
#1 gas producer.
It center
logistics and transport powerhouse

I give Russia an outside chance at the 3 spot with the 5 spot a lock.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>by 2020</p>
<p>#1 or 2 Agricultural exporter &#8211; if Russian agriculture grows at 6% a year it will pass the USA as the biggest exporter by 2020 6% is a reasonable if not conservative estimate.<br />
largest car manufacturing center in Europe<br />
#1 in nuclear reactor production<br />
#1 in nuclear fuel<br />
global player in civil aviation with superjet 100 and ms-21<br />
#1 military hardware exporter<br />
#2 oil producer<br />
#1 gas producer.<br />
It center<br />
logistics and transport powerhouse</p>
<p>I give Russia an outside chance at the 3 spot with the 5 spot a lock.</p>
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		<title>By: Ладушки.Net &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Posts about Russia as of 01/06/2009</title>
		<link>http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/05/31/kremlin-dreams-sometimes-come-true/#comment-1136</link>
		<dc:creator>Ладушки.Net &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Posts about Russia as of 01/06/2009</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:58:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/?p=1142#comment-1136</guid>
		<description>[...] the sights we also drank sips of their popular vodka, ate Russian blinis (pancakes with yogurt   Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True - sublimeoblivion.com 05/31/2009 This April, Michael Bohm, editor at the Moscow Times , published [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] the sights we also drank sips of their popular vodka, ate Russian blinis (pancakes with yogurt   Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True &#8211; sublimeoblivion.com 05/31/2009 This April, Michael Bohm, editor at the Moscow Times , published [...]</p>
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