Overall I am fairly happy with my predictions for the Ukrainian elections. I called the top four candidates in the first round perfectly, and it was also then that I predicted Yanukovych’s eventual victory (see above). Later on, I predicted a Yanukovych win by 5-10%, though I did add the caveat that “though that is just about possible if she’s very lucky and comes within 1-2% points of Yanukovych”. Boy am I glad I did.

PS. So the results I got from adding up the estimated percentages of each candidate’s voters going over to either Mr. Blue or the Gas Princess turned out to be very, very accurate.

Adding up these figures, Yanukovych gets 50% of the votes, whereas Tymoshenko gets 46%.

My reasons are elucidated in this above comment:

To summarize:
1) Opinion polls indicate a 15% (!) gap.
2) My detailed tallying of whose people will vote for Mr. Blue and whose for the Gas Princess indicate that even under assumptions very favorable to Tymoshenko, she will still lose by a 4% point margin.
3) The very high west-central turnout she needs to have any chance is unlikely to materialize based on common sense and even the anecdotal evidence.
a) West-central Ukrainians are almost as suspicious of Tymoshenko as Yanukovych; one argument even goes that whereas everyone knows where Mr. Blue stands regarding Russia and will oppose him, Tymoshenko will sell it out under the table.
b) Yushenko, by discouraging voters in the western regions from voting, is intentionally aiding Yanukovych’s campaign. Some have speculated that Yanukovych and Yushenko have a secret deal in the works.
c) The general disillusionment with democratic politics.

(That said, a resounding Yanukovych win will not *necessarily* be good for Russia. As pointed out he does not represent Russian interests so much as the interests of the Donbass oligarchs, so he will not necessarily see eye to eye with the Kremlin. A substantial mandate like that would mean that an important lever of Russian influence in Ukraine – playing both sides of the chessboard – would become weakened).

I would like to know who funds Stratfor, who are its financial backers?

Stratfor is the intelligence front of the narrative Tom Clancy has been pushing which basically while somewhat critical of US actions puts it in the context of a pro-US narrative void of the realities for fraudulent justification for US presence and activities there.

And there are promoting this Russian false flag attack/ terrorist scenario

I read Mel Gibsons next movie is a cold war thriller with Gibson a CIA agent uncovering a KGB plot in supporting terrorists in the US

About Al Qaeda and international terrorism, Chechnya and the Eurasian sphere and basically Russia in general and allied countries, Balkans, even the dominant political realities in the US and policy in the Mid East (Saudis have predominant influence in the US and tell the US what to do LOL).

I have been predicting exactly what is going on now in Eurasia for years with is documented from the very start of the fall of the USSR that the US has been positioning and orienting Europe towards a conflict and break up with Russia which they were realigning the countries and borders against Russia. The Balkans is just what the Nazis did in WW2 as a bridge to attack Russia.

Russian actions are a counter to this encirclement and division process who don’t want to end up like the Serbs.

Actually I have been doing research about real history to the lead up to and western support of the Bolshevik takeover of Russia whilst unsuccessfully supporting separatist/ anti Communist factions in Siberia and the Caucasus securing key oil and gas natural resources for western allies.

WW2 was used to orchestrate war using Germany and the fascist allies mainly Japan as a proxy to launch war against the USSR.

After that failed Britain and the US recruited and supported Nazi created or affiliated anti-Communist guerrilla forces to carry out attacks in the USSR trained in Germany and Britain and well as all there anti-Communist propaganda material to launch a Cold War against the USSR.

The stay behind forces were used in the Balkans conflict most noticeably in Croatia with Tudjman who was a BND agent and Croat Ustashi were fully backed Germany and German intelligence.

It continues today. The Brezinski/Obama regime like Carter before it as creating and setting up the stage for a major confrontation with Russia with Palin and the Republicans will take the lead like Reagan before her in 2012.

Now we are entering the endgame.

Rusyn region used to be part of Slovakia, right?

1. Pro-Russia Yanukovich leads ahead of Ukraine vote

Kyiv International Sociology Institute poll: Yanukovych 55.9%, Tymoshenko 40.7%

Research & Branding Group: as reported by RIA Novosti, nationwide: Yanukovych 44.9%, Tymoshenko 31.6%.

Now I know opinion polls are unreliable and so on, but not to such a huge extent as one showing a 15% gap.

2. Basic tallying; let’s look at the candidates on Jan 17.

Viktor Yanukovych — Party of Regions – 35.32
Yulia Tymoshenko — All-Ukrainian Union “Fatherland” – 25.05
Serhiy Tihipko — Self-nominated – 13.05
Arseniy Yatsenyuk — Self-nominated – 6.96
Viktor Yushchenko — Self-nominated – 5.45
Petro Symonenko — Communist Party of Ukraine – 3.54
Volodymyr Lytvyn — People’s Party – 2.35
Oleh Tyahnybok — All-Ukrainian Union – 1.43
Anatoliy Hrytsenko — Self-nominated – 1.20
Inna Bohoslovska — Self-nominated – 0.41
Oleksandr Moroz — Socialist Party of Ukraine – 0.38
Yuriy Kostenko — Ukrainian People’s Party – 0.22
Liudmyla Suprun — People’s Democratic Party – 0.19
Vasily Protyvsih — Self-nominated – 0.16
Oleksandr Pabat — Self-nominated – 0.14
Serhiy Ratushniak — Self-nominated – 0.12
Mykhaylo Brodskyy — Self-nominated – 0.06
Oleh Riabokon — Self-nominated – 0.03
Against all – 2.20
Informal – 1.65
Total – 100

Assume Yanukovych and Tymoshenko retain loyalty of their followers. Tihipko has his power base in “Blue” Dniepropetrovsk, was a Kuchma ally, and helped Yanukovych run his 2004 campaign; his people will mostly vote for Yanukovych, but let’s be generous to Tymoshenko and say only 60% support Yanukovych. However, she will get the bulk of Yatsenyuk (80%) and Yushenko (80%) voters. The Communists are firm “Blues”, so say 80% of them will vote for Yanukovych. The political gadfly Lytvyn’s people will strongly support Tymoshenko (80%), as will the nationalist Tyahnybok’s people (80%) and Our Ukrainian Hrytsenko (80%). Bohoslovska on a mostly anti-Tymoshenko program, so her people are Yanukovych’s (80%). The others on the list – Moroz, Kostenko, Suprun, Pabat, Ratushniak, Brodskyy, Riabokon seem to be mostly Timoshenko’s – let’s be generous and say 80%. The supporters of Protyvsih will presumably honor his legacy and vote against all.

Adding up these figures, Yanukovych gets 50% of the votes, whereas Tymoshenko gets 46%.

To summarize, just to equalize with Yanukovych, Tymoshenko will need a very good confluence of factors:
1) That the generous estimates above translate into real votes.
2) A boost of around 10% in additional votes from de-motivated voters in west-central Ukraine, presumably enchanted by her charisma or as an anti-Yanukovych protest vote. But this implies a huge boost in turnout to above the levels of the politically-charged Orange Revolution.

It is safer to say that Yanukovych will win with a gap wide enough that Tymoshenko will not have grounds to make a legal wrangle out of it – though that is just about possible if she’s very lucky and comes within 1-2% points of Yanukovych. But my prediction is a Yanukovych win by 5-10% points over Tymoshenko.