Category Archives: Sublime Oblivion

Why China Is Far Superior To India

It is not a secret to longtime readers of this blog that I rate India’s prospects far more pessimistically than I do China’s. My main reason is I do not share the delusion that democracy is a panacea and that whatever advantage … Continue reading

Posted in Sublime Oblivion, The Sino Triumphalist | Tagged , , , , , , , | 55 Comments

Is The US Still A Liberal Democracy?

In the years since 9/11, the US has built a mosaic of national security powers that undermine its claim to be the “land of the free.” According to this useful summary by Jonathan Turley, these include: Assassination of its own … Continue reading

Posted in Coffee House, Sublime Oblivion | Tagged , , , , , | 23 Comments

New Year Special: 2012 Predictions

It’s been a great year! To recap, in rough chronological order, 2011 saw: The most popular post (with 562 comments and counting; granted, most of them consisting of Indians and Pakistanis flaming each other); Visualizing the Kremlin Clans (joint project … Continue reading

Posted in Coffee House, Da Russophile, Sublime Oblivion | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 215 Comments

3000 AD: The Rise Of Polar Civilizations

The river of time flows on, and empires crumble, leaving behind only legend that becomes myth, while new polities arise to take their place. This process of decay and creation is going to receive a boost from “peak energy” and, … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic Visions, Science Fantasy, Sublime Oblivion | Tagged , , , , | 25 Comments

The Book I’m Writing

Those of you with long memories may remember me talking about writing a book on “future history.” That didn’t exactly go to plan; it kind of withered away. However, in the past month I have decided to resurrect the project. Why? (1) … Continue reading

Posted in Life in General, Sublime Oblivion | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

The Power Of Contingency: Why China Didn’t Rule The World

Pomeranz, Kenneth – The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (2001) Category: economy, history, world systems; Rating: 5*/5 Summary: Brad DeLong’s review; The Bactra Review; Are Coal and Colonies Really Crucial? It’s a rare book that not only … Continue reading

Posted in Reviews, Sublime Oblivion, The Sino Triumphalist | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 71 Comments

Future Superpowers – The World To 2100

Most current projections of future trends in national power fail to appreciate the importance of three crucial factors: (1) the declining EROEI of energy resources (including, but not limited to, “peak oil”); (2) the importance of human capital to economic … Continue reading

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Decade Forecast, Part 1 – The Downsizing Of Pax Americana

This is the first post in a series of three, in which I will analyze the major trends that will define the next ten years and their likely impacts on global regions. To put these forecasts into context, I must … Continue reading

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Walled Off By Complexity: Did China Stagnate Because Of Its Writing System?

One of the biggest questions in global history is why it was Western Europe that industrialized first, and ended up colonizing most of the rest of the world. As late as 1450, the possibility of such an outcome would have been … Continue reading

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The Radical Ideologies Of The 21st Century

EDIT: This article has been translated into Russian at Inosmi.Ru (Радикальные идеологии 21-го века). Though I’ve written a lot on technological, energy, and geopolitical futures, this has largely been to the neglect of ideology. Part of the reason is that … Continue reading

Posted in Sublime Oblivion | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments