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Sublime Oblivion Forums » Recent Posts http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Sublime Oblivion Forums » Recent Posts en Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:29:44 +0000 rs02gnx3024 on "Earn minimum Rs 20,000 PM through simple online copy/paste work. Location: India" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/earn-minimum-rs-20000-pm-through-simple-online-copypaste-work-location-india#post-273 Mon, 22 Mar 2010 02:31:45 +0000 rs02gnx3024 273@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ DATA-ENTRY WORK EARN MINIMUM RS 20,000 PER MONTH: Excellent data-entry work for those interested in working from HOME, SMALL OFFICES, etc. Earn minimum Rs 20,000 per seat per month. Simple work, no special training required. Knowledge of Computers, English Language & Internet Surfing is all that is required. Sign up immediately by paying an affordable deposit per seat, we have more than 250 seats working on this excellent process since last 18 months. Special discount for mass-booking of seats. Get in touch with your individual or company profile on <a href="mailto:dataprocessmumbai@yahoo.com">dataprocessmumbai@yahoo.com</a>. Use discount code no. rs02gnx3024 while applying. Arkadi on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-261 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 14:58:42 +0000 Arkadi 261@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Solar Sun - What you described is not war, it's a form of ''pressure''. War is tanks, howitzers, jets, bombers etc etc. As a side note, I think you are mis-interpreting the Muslim people. I don't know much Chechen terrorists, and have no particular interest in the topic, but from my experience these people do not accept Christianity and the 'west' in any form or other. I had the pleasure to live in a town with a mosque, and speak to many Muslims about their views. Many of them have open hatred towards Britain and USA, and I cannot see how MI6 and the CIA would openly co-operate with Muslim terrorists. Bombing civilians for ''liberty'' during operation Moshtarak, then training extremists to bomb Russia, to me, is impossible. They obey Allah, no-one else, and America is the intruder on their beliefs....Allahu Akbar! Something interesting worth mentioning: a few weeks ago a documentary called 'Dispatches: Behind Enemy Lines' aired on Channel 4. This documentary was filmed by an Afghan journalist who lived with Taliban militants and filmed their lives. Near the end of the documentary, we see a glimpse of a ''Chechen brother'' travelling with the Taliban to rest in the mountains, and then, presumably, to fight the coalition. So much for their Chechen network.. solar sun on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-260 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 03:39:42 +0000 solar sun 260@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Has anyone actually seriously researched Chechen terrorism and terrorism in Central Asia and China? I'm guessing no one has read Paul Murphy’s book Wolves of Islam Russia and the Faces of Chechen Terrorism the definitive work on the subject or the extensive material from various publications and news sources of western intelligence supporting and creating an international terrorist and organised crime (Yossef Bodanskys ISSA being the best) in the Balkans. @Arkadi War by proxy using Chechen lead terrorism, Israeli-Russian organised crime, economic and political subversion all with the aim of clearly stated aim of breaking up War has already been declared @T. Greer State sponsored terrorism, ethnic cleansing and genocide. Was that not the reason we declared war on Afghanistan? And the Taliban government was only accused of harbouring OBL with no foreknowledge of the attack with recent declassified reports saying the Taliban regime put pressure on OBL before 9/11 to stop rhetoric/attacks against the US. @Anatoly Karlin Create a “conspiracy theory” subform all you want I will never post in it. Not a conspiracy theory it is a realistic evaluation of the fact from well research information from credible sources mainstream news articles, intelligence review publications over the years I have researched the Balkans and Chechnya a lot (the latter is almost impossible to get good information about that is not pro-Chechen) and the undeniable fact that western governments were/are sponsoring terrorism in the Balkans which every credible source agrees and Russia in some case caught read handed like in the case of Abu Qatada who was in the pay of MI6 featured in Chechen Jihadist recruitment video . The September the 11th hijackers were originally part of a Bosnian-Chechen network to fight in Chechnya. If it is just simply a conspiracy theory then you and other posters here will be able to answer about 10 or 15 questions that I will post Arkadi on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-259 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 13:04:30 +0000 Arkadi 259@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ "What would the dichotomy be?" Let me suggest "There Will Be War!" Or possibly none, just another subforum, as there is no need to halve the small number of posts. Gregor on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-258 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 10:48:25 +0000 Gregor 258@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ 'I'm thinking of creating a "Conspiracy Theories" subforum and relegating threads to there as appropriate. Would that be a good idea?' What would the dichotomy be? <img src="http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/my-plugins/bb-smilies/default/icon_confused.gif" title=":?" class="bb_smilies" /> Anatoly Karlin on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-257 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 08:34:58 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 257@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ I'm thinking of creating a "Conspiracy Theories" subforum and relegating threads to there as appropriate. Would that be a good idea? T. Greer on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-256 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 02:25:42 +0000 T. Greer 256@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Your are right Arkardi, but Solar Sun has a funny definition of war. I am still waiting to hear him <a href="//www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-194"">define it for us. </a> Arkadi on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-255 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 04:15:00 +0000 Arkadi 255@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ I thought those doughnuts were supposed to be ''fallstreak holes''? Anyway, I disagree with your views over the looming ww3. US will continue to pressure and attempt to disrupt Russia's revival, but that is not war. solar sun on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-253 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:00:40 +0000 solar sun 253@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ @T. Greer This is what I consider war I think you would agree. Declassified 1998 US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) Intelligence Information Report (IIR) of foreign terrorists networks in Russia and the Crimea and central Asia from Afghanistan and Pakistan through Turkey and Azerbaijan from a 2000 Freedom of Information act request from Judicial Watch. “A good deal of information concerning OBLs and al Qaedas efforts in Chechnya, the Caucuses, Crimea, and the Central Asian Republics is covered in the IIR. The confirmed existence of a [secure, reliable, terrorist-sponsored] direct route to Chechnya from Pakistan and Afghanistan through Turkey and Azerbaijan is a stunning information point within this IIR especially in light of the date of the information, 1998.” <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/story/2004/nov/defense-intelligence-report-details-al-qaedas-plans-russia-chechnya-and-wmd" rel="nofollow">http://www.judicialwatch.org/story/2004/nov/defense-intelligence-report-details-al-qaedas-plans-russia-chechnya-and-wmd</a> <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/cases/102/dia.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.judicialwatch.org/cases/102/dia.pdf</a> And who is the Sakka they refer to in the report? This who Sakka is. <blockquote>(Sakka's) story is also one of a globetrotting terrorist in an organisation that is truly multinational. [...] The Chechens needed trained fighters. Sakka was telephoned by Ibn al-Khattab, the late militia leader controlling the foreign fighters against the Russians. Khattab requested that Sakka’s trainees should be sent on to Afghanistan for military training because "conditions are tough". [...] One of Sakka’s chief roles was to organise passports and visas for the volunteers to make their way to Afghanistan through Pakistan. His ability to keep providing high-quality forged papers made Turkey a main hub for Al-Qaeda movements, his lawyer says. The young men came to Turkey pretending to be on holiday and Sakka’s false papers allowed them to "disappear" overseas. Turkish intelligence were aware of unusual militant Islamic activity in the Yalova mountains, where Sakka had set up his camps. [...] Some of Sakka’s account is corroborated by the US government’s 9/11 Commission. It found evidence that four of the hijackers – whom Sakka says he trained – had initially intended to go to Chechnya from Turkey but the border into Georgia was closed. [...] Sakka’s lawyer said: "Just like there is money laundering, there is also terrorist laundering and Turkey was the centre of this."</blockquote> <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/15/551916/-Sibel-Edmonds-Case:-The-Central-Asia-Islamization-Cocktail:-Mosques,-Madrassas,-HeroinTerrorism" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/15/551916/-Sibel-Edmonds-Case:-The-Central-Asia-Islamization-Cocktail:-Mosques,-Madrassas,-HeroinTerrorism</a> <a href="http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2008/01/07/nukes-spooks-and-the-specter-of-911/" rel="nofollow">http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2008/01/07/nukes-spooks-and-the-specter-of-911/</a> solar sun on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-248 Sat, 06 Feb 2010 16:03:21 +0000 solar sun 248@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ I don't know a specific date as there is virtually no information from a Russian perspective on these deployments with info from western source in the context of defence measures against Russian aggression since the Georgia conflict as there have been about 6 separate NATO exercises with NATO and EU forces in the first few months of Obama’s presidency. I am estimating based on the preparation for the next Reagan administration from the Brzezinski/Carter regime with there pre-arranged large scale operation in Afghanistan in 79 I would predict a year or maybe before the end of this year that a staged incident either in the Crimea, Georgia or the Baltic’s which a false flag terrorist attack as a likely scenario which they will blame on Russia as the FSB staging it in which in conjunction with there sleeper cell Islamist forces could launch an attack in Russia but it will not be like Barbarossa a psychical assault by a huge invasion force . A declassified 1998 Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) Intelligence Information Report (IIR) of foreign terrorists networks in Russia and the Crimea and central Asia from Afghanistan and Pakistan through Turkey and Azerbaijan from a 2000 Freedom of Information act request from Judicial Watch states OBL/Khattabs network in Russia and sleeper units to carry out terrorist/sabotage/espionage in Russia for future events to rely on an economic crisis situation as a catalyst for recruitment and action. As note in the report the man responsible for the transfer of militants and training in Turkish military bases is Sakka which is revealed in a court case in Turkey to have trained the 9/11 hijackers to originally fight in Chechnya. <blockquote>A good deal of information concerning OBLs and al Qaedas efforts in Chechnya, the Caucuses, Crimea, and the Central Asian Republics is covered in the IIR. The confirmed existence of a [secure, reliable, terrorist-sponsored] direct route to Chechnya from Pakistan and Afghanistan through Turkey and Azerbaijan is a stunning information point within this IIR especially in light of the date of the information, 1998.</blockquote> <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/story/2004/nov/defense-intelligence-report-details-al-qaedas-plans-russia-chechnya-and-wmd" rel="nofollow">http://www.judicialwatch.org/story/2004/nov/defense-intelligence-report-details-al-qaedas-plans-russia-chechnya-and-wmd</a> <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/cases/102/dia.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.judicialwatch.org/cases/102/dia.pdf</a> <a href="http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2008/01/07/nukes-spooks-and-the-specter-of-911/" rel="nofollow">http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2008/01/07/nukes-spooks-and-the-specter-of-911/</a> <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2936761.ece" rel="nofollow">http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2936761.ece</a> I believe that the missile shield is probably for the purpose of the integration of HAARP weather technology which will be used in the assault and that the strange light phenomenon over Romania, Moscow and China (although I can’t find the video for that one). <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XvBYBOFKaM" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XvBYBOFKaM</a> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXF9HSB627U" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXF9HSB627U</a> Yugoslavia is the model and test case for aggression against Russia. Not only are the same Islamic networks and countries involved but also the same in intelligence front NGO’s (NED, USAID, Soros, etc), but the same hyper inflated death toll which changes depending on the source 100,000, 100,000-200,000, 250,000 and as high as 500,000, ludicrous rape number of 30,000 and even the narrative is the same Milosevic Communist authoritarian leader supporting nationalism and separatism in ethnic enclaves of Serbs in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo You will also note that Obama’s staff is almost entirely made up of people involved in supporting Islamic terrorism as far back as 79 in Afghanistan (Brzezinski and Gates) and Clintons destruction of Yugoslavia (Holbrooke, Albright, General Jones, etc). Anatoly Karlin on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-247 Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:19:36 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 247@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ OK so could you please make your hypothesis falsifiable by providing us with some dates? Thx. solar sun on "The preparations for WW3 have begun against Russia, China and the Eurasian spher" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-preparations-for-ww3-have-begun-against-russia-china-and-the-eurasian-spher#post-246 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:38:45 +0000 solar sun 246@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ I don't have time just now to post all the information but as I been saying Brzezinski has been positioning NATO forces in key positions allied with strategic allies in preparation for war against the Eurasian sphere just like all the pieces were in place prior to WW2 using Nazi Germany as a proxy to target the USSR and annex it’s strategic locations of natural resources in the Caucasus and Siberia which dates back to western support of the Bolshevik revolution and failed anti-Bolshevik forces in the Caucasus and Siberia. solar sun on "Things I don't like in this forum" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/things-i-dont-like-in-this-forum#post-219 Wed, 20 Jan 2010 20:36:42 +0000 solar sun 219@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ @Anatoly Karlin I'll post it again with mu comment why it is relevant in the current political climate (although I think it is pretty self evident). Actually you can delete the "US BNP (British National Party) America Third Position" I thought it was something of significance but it really isn't. Anatoly Karlin on "Things I don't like in this forum" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/things-i-dont-like-in-this-forum#post-218 Wed, 20 Jan 2010 13:24:15 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 218@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ They were only links with no original content, analysis or opinion of your own, and as such was more spam than a springboard for discussion*. As I already wrote in <a href=""//www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/sidel-edmonds""">this thread</a>: <blockquote>When making "news" posts could you please give us your own interpretation of their significance, something a bit more substantial than "a good interview". Thanks.</blockquote> Please adhere to these guidelines and your threads will not be deleted. * The same could be said of <a href=""//www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/us-bnp-british-national-party-america-third-position""">US BNP (British National Party) America Third Position</a>, though I decided to leave it. solar sun on "Things I don't like in this forum" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/things-i-dont-like-in-this-forum#post-217 Wed, 20 Jan 2010 12:15:21 +0000 solar sun 217@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ History thread I posted Fraud, Famine and Fascism The Ukrainian Genocide Myth from Hitler to Harvard disappeared which I posted an article from the 1988 Village Voice article called "In Search of a SOVIET HOLOCAUST A 55-Year-Old Famine Feeds the Right" by Jeff Coplon and a PDF link to the late Douglas Tottle’s very important book “Fraud, Famine and Fascism The Ukrainian Genocide Myth from Hitler to Harvard” detailed the Nazi/ Hearst fascist origins to the man-made famine narrative. Anatoly Karlin on "The Himalayas Will Be Here for the Next Two Centuries, AGW Regardless" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-himalayas-will-be-here-for-the-next-two-centuries-agw-regardless#post-216 Mon, 18 Jan 2010 19:54:47 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 216@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ PS. Two tidbits I'd like to share on the topic of AGW. <a href="//www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15211377"">Climate change: No hiding place?</a> (Economist) <blockquote>The betting is that 2010 will be the hottest year on record. But understanding how the planet’s temperature changes is still a challenge to science IT MAY seem implausible at the moment, as northern Europe, Asia and parts of America shiver in the snow, but 2010 may well turn out as the hottest year on record. Those who doubt that greenhouse gases are quite the problem they have been cracked up to be by most of the world’s climatologists have taken comfort from the fact that the Hadley Centre, part of Britain’s Meteorological Office, reckons the warmest year since records began was 1998 (see chart 1). Twelve years without a new record would, the sceptics reckon, be rather a large lull in what is supposed to be a rising trend. Computer modelling by the Met Office, though, gives odds-on chances of the lull being broken. ... Indeed, one reason for thinking that the coming year will be hotter than all known previous ones is that the tropical Pacific is currently dumping heat. This phenomenon, by which heat that has been stored up in the sea over the previous few years is released into the atmosphere, is known as El Niño. A strong Niño contributed to the record temperatures in 1998. In 2007 and 2008 the opposite phenomenon, a cooling Niña, was happening. That goes some way to explaining why those years were chilly by the standards of the 2000s. And on top of El Niño, there is the sun. The sun’s brightness fluctuates over an 11-year cycle. Though the fluctuation is not vast, it is enough to make a difference from peak to trough. In 2009 the sun was at the bottom of its cycle. Unless it is behaving particularly strangely, it should, over the next 12 months, begin to brighten. ... DePreSys is an attempt to work round this “initialisation” problem—to give the model’s caricature not just an all-purpose resemblance to the way the real climate behaves, but one that captures its pose and expression at a particular moment. In 2007 the first study using DePreSys correctly predicted that there would be a few more years which would set no records. After this, it said, there would be a definite rise in temperature. More recently, Dr Smith and his team have been using clusters of computers around Britain to run multiple models with slightly different initial conditions. Four-fifths of these runs suggest 2010 will be warmer than any previous year—which could be taken as odds of four-to-one on. The techniques are still in their infancy. But they are at least making predictions that can be checked.</blockquote> Then there's the startling revelation that 2009 may have been the joint-2nd warmest year on record, even despite that solar radiation is at its cyclical minimum. <a href="//www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/2009-temperatures-by-jim-hansen/"">If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Damned Cold?</a> <blockquote>The past year, 2009, tied as the second warmest year in the 130 years of global instrumental temperature records, in the surface temperature analysis of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The Southern Hemisphere set a record as the warmest year for that half of the world. Global mean temperature, as shown in Figure 1a, was 0.57°C (1.0°F) warmer than climatology (the 1951-1980 base period). Southern Hemisphere mean temperature, as shown in Figure 1b, was 0.49°C (0.88°F) warmer than in the period of climatology.</blockquote> Anatoly Karlin on "The Himalayas Will Be Here for the Next Two Centuries, AGW Regardless" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-himalayas-will-be-here-for-the-next-two-centuries-agw-regardless#post-215 Mon, 18 Jan 2010 19:45:23 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 215@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Thanks for contributing this, TG. My thoughts: 1. The IPCC was indeed very wrong on this one, the original work having been done in <a href=""//citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.128.751&rep=rep1&type=pdf""">the Kotlyakov report</a> (1996) which gave the date of 2350 for the disappearance of most of the Himalayan glaciers. 2. These kinds of non-apocalyptic timescales are backed by another, more recent report, <a href=""//cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18780211""">An assessment of the potential impacts of climatic warming on glacier-fed river flow in the Himalaya</a> (2006) by Rees & Collins. <blockquote>A regional hydro-glaciological model has been developed to assess the potential impacts of climatic warming on glacier-fed river flows in the Indus and Ganges basins. The model, applied at a 20 km x 20 km grid resolution, considers glaciers contributing runoff to a cell as a single idealized glacier that is allowed to recede through time. Using 1961-1990 climate data as input, baseline flow estimates were derived for every stretch of river in either basin. A transient warming scenario of +0.06°C years-1 was then imposed for 100 years from an arbitrary start-date of 1991. Comparison of results at 10 sites in two representative areas suggest the impacts of such climatic warming are similar regionally, with estimates of future decadal mean flows continually increasing at 1-4% per decade, relative to baseline, at most sites considered. Flows peaked at only two of the sites several decades into the model run.</blockquote> 3. The worst affected region by far in the event of glacier meltdown would be the Indus (and Pakistan), which is almost entirely reliant on glacier runoff; the other great Asian rivers derive a great deal of their flow from the monsoon, so presumably agricultural civilization will be able to survive in the non-Pakistani parts of the Indian subcontinent as long as a) the monsoons continue, b) irrigation is practiced, c) new rice varieties are developed that are able to cope with increased heat stress, and d) said areas don't fall into so-called "<a href=""//www.iop.org/EJ/article/1755-1315/6/52/522006/ees9_6_522006.pdf?request-id=38f1864f-e557-476d-8ebc-5867c2fc0e54""">zones of uninhabitability</a>, 4. That said, I should still stress that there are far more unknowns than knowns in all this. Some possibilities that might make the dire predictions of meltdown by around 2050 more plausible: a) Not a lot of research done, AFAIK, on the brown soot and particulates deposited by Indian cook-fires and industrializing China on the Himalayas, which when embedded in the ice massively accelerate melting since they are "black bodies" (even though ironically they shield the Himalayas from some of the heat). b) Referring to the report in 2): I'm not sure representing melting glaciers contributing runoff to a cell as a "single idealized glacier" is very rigorous. There could be runaway mechanisms similar to the ones recently discovered for Greenland and Antarctic (i.e. <a href=""//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moulin_(geology)""">moulins</a>). 5. Though the 2035 date seems to have been invalidated, more research needs to be done before we can ascertain that the situation really is as non-threatening as implied by Kotlyakov and Rees & Collins work. EDIT: 6. I had a look at the Kotlyakov report (1) in more detail: <blockquote>Taking air temperature records of the Tien Shari Weather Station and assuming that the same linear trend is to keep up (unfortunately, linear extrapolation is inevitable here), we may find that the mean annual temperature in Central Asia may go up 1.5° C by the year 2350. Proceeding from these rough estimates, in Tables 10, and 11 we have derived figures for glaciation shrinkage DS, changes in the specific glacier melt runoff Rd and the volume of this runoff QRd, as well as for the overall rise of the ocean level Z SL. These data apply to Central Asian glaciers and all of the extrapolar glaciation of the Earth. ... ... The extrapolar glaciation of the Earth will be decaying at rapid, catastrophic rates—its total area will shrink from 500,000 to 100,000 km² by the year 2350.</blockquote> Hmmm... so he is modeling a (linear!) 1.5C temperature rise over Central Asia during the century, when the projected global average for just the next century ranges up to as high as 6.1C (IPCC) and increases exponentially over time (and that's discounting tipping points, the dimming effect, the <a href="//www.grinzo.com/energy/index.php/2010/01/16/about-that-archer-bonus/"">"Archer bonus"</a>, etc). T. Greer on "The Himalayas Will Be Here for the Next Two Centuries, AGW Regardless" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-himalayas-will-be-here-for-the-next-two-centuries-agw-regardless#post-214 Mon, 18 Jan 2010 04:32:33 +0000 T. Greer 214@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Over the last month and a half a significant news story has come forth that has not deserved its relative lack of attention. See, as it turns out, the IPCC was wrong. Dead wrong. The IPCC put forward the claim in its last working report that if CO2 emissions were released unabated then the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035, and by way of consequent drought, kill millions of people dependent on rivers whose source lies in the Himalayas glacial run off. (That includes, off the top of my head, the Yangtze, the Mekong, the Ganges, the Meghna, and the Indus.) Two months ago the Indian environmental ministry published their own report that claimed the opposite -- the Himalayas were in no way about to dry off the face of the Earth. Coming as it did before Copenhagen, most Western environmentalists dismissed the report as a cheap ploy to strengthen their negotiating position before the conference. (To see my thoughts on that conference, see <a href="http://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2010/01/copenhagen-failure-of-american.html"">here</a>. But, it turns out the Indians may have been onto something. A few scientists and reporters dug into the report... and discovered that the 2035 figure was baseless. The real number was not 2035, but 2350. I could tell the story of how all this happened, but others have already blazed that trail better than I can. And I present: <a href=""http://www.chron.com/commons/readerblogs/atmosphere.html?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=54e0b21f-aaba-475d-87ab-1df5075ce621&plckPostId=Blog:54e0b21f-aaba-475d-87ab-1df5075ce621Post:a2b394cc-5b5f-47ad-8bb5-c1aec91409ad&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest"">By the Way, there will still be glaciers in 2035.</a> John Nielsen-Gammon. Atmo.Sphere. 12 December 2009. <a href="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/12/peer-review-in-ipcc.html"">Peer Review in the IPCC</a> Roger Peilke Jr. Roger Peilke Jr’s Blog. 23 December 2009. <a href=""http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527432.800-sifting-climate-facts-from-speculation.html"">Seperating Climate Facts from Fears</a> Editors. New Scientist. 13 January 2010. solar sun on "Make your 2010 Predictions!" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/make-your-2010-predictions#post-198 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 10:03:51 +0000 solar sun 198@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ 1) The world economy will go up then down once the bailout money has ran out and the bubble pops. 2) Main target of US policy will be Russia not directly but indirectly so I expect there will be increased tensions in the Caucasus with increased terror attacks and US/British backing of Crimean Tatars with conflict between the Tatars and Russians. This is the year you will start to see a lot of documentaries, TV programs, articles in the press, maybe a movie at the end of the year, etc about Communist crimes in the USSR especially Stalin and the WW2 era. Maybe I should start a thread with a counter listing the various articles, TV about Communist crimes in the media in 2010. 3) US will start a major push into Central Asia so I expect the flow of drugs to increase in the region from Afghanistan with increase in violence in Xinjing and maybe Tibet. The major flash point will be the Fergana Valley and destabilisation of Uzbekistan. 4) Sarah Palin will be promoted as the Republican opposition and in 2012 where the main foreign policy issue will be conflict with Russia and Palin will be promoted as Reagan with tits and win the election. Viktor Yanukovych will win the election in Ukraine and Britain, US and EU/Soros organisations will do everything possible to disrupt his presidency (smear campaigns in the press, organised nationalist and marches and protests although the western media will refer to them as simply the opposition. UK politics will be as boring as ever 5) US/Israel will support opposition to the current government in Turkey with Turkey supporting oil and gas transit routes from Russia and cooperation with Iran for oil and gas which is vital to Nabucco after the failed Mossad coup attempt (which surprisingly got little attention even on the internet). 6) I had other predictions but I forgot what they are. Anatoly Karlin on "Make your 2010 Predictions!" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/make-your-2010-predictions#post-197 Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:50:55 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 197@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ <img src="http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/sorceress-150x150.png"> Happy New Year! My vision is posted at <a href="http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2010/01/04/2010-predictions/">New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions</a>. Please use this thread to do your own forecasting / crystal-ball gazing. <blockquote>1) World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside. 2) Obama’s honeymoon period is over, his approval ratings are on the downslide, and his major domestic and foreign policy initiatives have almost all failed. Republicans will carry the mid-term elections in 2010, but there is a strong mood of apathy and a sense that what is really needed is a new party, a new politics – though this will only start playing a great role in the post-Obama, or post-2012, era. Rising violence in Iraq (perhaps abetted by Iran, to demonstrate to the US the dangers of attacking it); a false quiet in Afghanistan, as the Taleban limit activity to conserve their strength while the US presence in Afghanistan is strong (they know the Americans will retreat the bulk of their forces soon enough anyway). In the UK, Gordon Brown (New Labour) will almost certainly lose to James Cameron (Conservatives) in the mid-2010 elections. 3) Possible wars. Foremost looms the shadow of Iran and the bomb, of course. I doubt the US will attack in 2010, unless Israel forces its hand. It will first exhaust its options with sanctions, etc, which will almost certainly be ineffective. The Iranian IRGC-linked hardliners in power (figurehead – Ahmadinejad), under pressure from the Rafsanjani / Mousavi clerical clan, will not yield, and will remain defiant internationally to justify increasing their hold on internal power. There will be tension, but no war – especially since the US still needs to develop its Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the next-generation bunker-buster, to have a high level of confidence that a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear installations have truly done their job. (True, postponing the strike to 2011 or 2012 makes the world economy more vulnerable to disruption because oil prices will be higher then and oil supplies tighter, but then again I highly doubt the administration takes “peak oil” into consideration in its strategic planning). Likelihood: 25%; Severity: 6. What is much more likely to happen is a new war between Israel and Hezbollah. Since 2006, Israel may have infiltrated Hezbollah, aided by internal splits within the organization, and has taken stock of lessons learned during the unsuccessful last war; it may now want to send a signal to Iran and preemptively incapacitate one of its most effective means for retaliating against Israel into the bargain. Israeli special forces are more than capable of producing a false flag, even if Hezbollah refrains from doing it for them. Furthermore, Hezbollah is causing Saudi Arabia trouble by sending fighters and weapons to the Shia insurgency in Yemen fighting the Saudis; SA would appreciate an Israeli crippling attack on Hezbollah, and may give concessions to Israel, such as allowing it to use its airspace in a strike against Iran (the US has said it will shoot down Israeli planes flying to Iran over Iraq). This further increases the incentives for Israel to pummel Hezbollah, this time round with a real, large-scale ground invasion. Likelihood: 50%; Severity: 3. A new Russia-Georgia war remains a serious possibility, if Saakashvili uses his rapidly rebuilding military forces to make another megalomaniac lunge at reclaiming South Ossetia, or if Russia orchestrates a false flag to give itself the justification to roll in the tanks to Tbilisi and set up a puppet regime. In the latter case, the “new cold war” atmosphere of August 2008 will begin to appear to be distinctly jovial. Likelihood: 10%; Severity: 4. Finally, we should note that a) Azerbaijan and Armenia have a bitter rivalry, cultural and geographic over the Armenian-populated and -occupied Azeri enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, b) though it lost a war to Armenia in the early 1990’s, Azerbaijan has been implementing a rapid military modernization since 2006 with the help of oil pipeline transit revenue from the BTC, and its military budget alone is now equivalent to Armenia’s entire state budget, c) Armenia and Turkey are slowly moving towards a reconciliation under Russian brokerage, which threatens Azerbaijan’s strategic position, and d) Armenian-Azeri talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have recently collapsed. The obstacle to war is that Turkey and the US, though friendly with Azerbaijan, are very unlikely to give it direct support; but Armenia is in the CSTO military alliance with Russia. An Azeri attack will almost certainly lead to a decisive Russian response, furthermore there is a large Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia. Unlike Saakashvili, Aliyev is a rational leader, and for now Russian and Turkey have a mutual interest in keeping things contained. That said, the possibility of a new war cannot be fully discounted – especially if it is simultaneous with the chaos unleashed by a US-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies. Expect instability, but not collapse, in Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, some or all of the Baltic states. Despite the occasional rhetoric, there is very little chance of a new Korean war, a Venezuela-Colombia war, or an Israel-Syria war. 4) Given that Russia’s demography has continued improving even in 2009, a year of deep economic contraction and scare stories (false) of an abortion apocalypse, it is almost certain that it will continue improving further in 2010 and that the year will see the first year of positive population growth since 1994 (or 2009). Birth rate = 12.5-13.0 (reasons), Death rate = 13.5-14.0 (a reason), Net Migration = 1.5-2.0, all / 1000. Economic growth of around 3-5% of GDP sounds reasonable. Lots of privatizations and corruption investigations as part of the Surkov clan’s struggle against the siliviki and “their” state companies. Ukraine under Yanukovych will join Eurasec or the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, but is yet unlikely to join the CSTO or give Russian 2nd language status. 5) Oil production in 2010 will be around the same as 2009 – increased demand will collide with geological depletion to keep output stable. Oil prices in H1 will remain at 70-90$, and will rise to 90-110$ in H2 on the basis that background geological depletion will be cancelled out by OPEC going back on its 2009 production cuts to fuel the ongoing global recovery. Of course, if there are serious confrontations with Iran, the oil price will veer right off the historical charts. 6) No major AGW-related physical events (except for a heatwave or two), given that solar irradiation remains at an unusually long trough – expect the fireworks by 2012-15. AGW skepticism will become more popular in the wake of Climategate. China and its proxies will prevent any more significant action being taken at the next UN climate change summit in Mexico, than was “achieved” in Copenhagen. By year-end the performance of the world’s top supercomputer will exceed 3 petaflops (repeat of 2009 prediction). 7) China’s growth will slow from around 8% in 2009, to perhaps 5% in 2010 as it cuts back on the loose credit in recognition of the problems this is going to create further down the line (this is already happening). Otherwise, expect China to continue keeping a low profile as the US insists on shooting itself in the foot.</blockquote> Anatoly Karlin on "Admin Announcements & Discipline" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/admin-announcements-discipline#post-196 Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:25:22 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 196@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ User sp031d2322 deleted for spamming / blatant advertising. T. Greer on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-194 Mon, 28 Dec 2009 19:49:55 +0000 T. Greer 194@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ *sigh* SolarSun, please provide me with a definition for war. I feel like the concept has been rather muddled in this conversation - do you mind providing a measure of clarity? Before I can accept your claims that the United States is waging a covert war on the Russian state, please, I ask, give me a concise and simple definition for what is and what is not warfare. solar sun on "Balkans Wars" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/balkans-wars#post-193 Sun, 27 Dec 2009 13:54:28 +0000 solar sun 193@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Milosevic’s opening statement to the Hague Tribuneral (explains why the proceedings were never covered in the controlled mass media). Part 2 and 3 are particularly interesting. Part 1 of 25 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so-WCqJ8oQQ" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so-WCqJ8oQQ</a> Part 2 of 25 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqiHyBFXo3M" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqiHyBFXo3M</a> Part 3 of 25 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6Ucn-AlCDo" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6Ucn-AlCDo</a> Playlist of all 25 videos. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/arsYenije#p/c/320124F41EB54A83" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/user/arsYenije#p/c/320124F41EB54A83</a> Anatoly Karlin on "Admin Announcements & Discipline" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/admin-announcements-discipline#post-192 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:55:36 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 192@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ User susanbell84 deleted for blatant advertising on first post. Anatoly Karlin on "Admin Announcements & Discipline" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/admin-announcements-discipline#post-191 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:53:05 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 191@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Here I will make announcement to changes in the site and moderating decisions. T. Greer on "Russian Scientists Field Test Geoengineering" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/russian-scientists-field-test-geoengineering#post-189 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:17:36 +0000 T. Greer 189@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ I do not have enough time to comment on this one, but I think the story will be appreciated by members of this forum: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/12/14/russian-scientists-field-test-geoengineering/">RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS FIELD TEST GEOENGINEERING</a> Chris Mooney. <a href="url=http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection">The Intersection.</a> 14 December 2009. solar sun on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-188 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:04:50 +0000 solar sun 188@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ @Anatoly Karlin Yes but this is a revised Nuclear war doctrine. And it is not just that as Justine Ramandio of antiwar.com mentioned in an article a couple of month’s back Washington is running war games simulations against Russia and China. There was a leading establishment like military think tank analysing establishment like military think tank analysing And as I have predicted and been saying for years with Brezinski there objective is to destabilise Eurasia via Islamic just like they did Yugoslavia and it is totally predictable that since Obama/Brezinski administration came to power I believe and I think it is obvious that the US/NATO goal is to push these Islamic militants into Central Asia to destabilise the region as I stated in a previous thread. Currently as I mentioned before and predicted they would are promoting Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang against China like this establishment worm Peter Hitchen’s in the Daily Mail. <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1233439/Special-Investigation-PETER-HITCHENS--Blood-fear-Happiness-Street-China-threatens-obliterate-ancient-culture.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1233439/Special-Investigation-PETER-HITCHENS--Blood-fear-Happiness-Street-China-threatens-obliterate-ancient-culture.html</a> I would login in to post comment s with links detailing there links to the CIA and RAND Corporations “Xinjiang Project” but I can’t remember if I ever registered with the Daily Mail I’ll have check my email. Anatoly Karlin on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-187 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:57:06 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 187@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ That map refers to a proposal by the FAS to reduce the damage to Russia in a US nuclear response by targeting counter-value targets in a strategy of minimal deterrence (much like what China has today). <blockquote>In fact Washington has drawn nuclear strategy plans as a war doctrine to target Russian infrastructure.</blockquote> This is rather nonsensical. Moscow and Washington have both had nuclear war plans since the 1950's to destroy the other side's military potential. They still do, though planners spend a lot less time thinking about them nowadays. solar sun on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-186 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:05:07 +0000 solar sun 186@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Best review of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVHKvcCh_zU" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVHKvcCh_zU</a> @T. Greer <blockquote>And no war has expanded to include every precondition for armed conflict. The problem with this is easy to see. There are dozens of prerequisites that must be met before a war between two states is possible. A country must have people, for one. Is the production of food, the watering of fields, or the mothering of sons also a function of war? Every conflict throughout history has total war, if we are to take you by your word.</blockquote> Obviously it must have people then they would not need to fight as there is no one to fight against. And there is a thing called international law states can't just go and invade other states without a viable reason/pretext. Best example was Iraq were evidence was cooked up to pose Saddam as a threat WMD, links to Al Qaeda, etc. Or the new excuse for waging war to prevent "genocide" with "humanitarian intervention" which is actual part of Soros Open Society philosophy who ran alternative anti-Milosevic/pro Albanian media in the former Yugoslavia and financed training of Otpor activists to overthrow the Milosevic government. <blockquote>Now we have another definition of war! So now a country cannot be part of a conflict unless it faces "social degradation" and the "destruction of physical industrial output". This seems quite curious to me. I may be wrong, but I have been told that the United States was a participator in the Second World War. Did they not have industrial growth during that time?</blockquote> I didn’t say that all these were prerequisite for war to be meet that leads to war but they are an instrument of war obviously if you are going to attack a country you do not do it when it is military or socially strong. Yes I think economic warfare is an instrument of war like sanctions imposed on Iraq and Serbia before there was actual physical warfare. Can’t wage a war or become strong independent state without a manufacturing production base. In fact Washington has drawn nuclear strategy plans as a war doctrine to target Russian infrastructure. <img src="http://img.rian.ru/images/12117/45/121174557.jpg"> <blockquote>Kotare's piece was prompted by a blogger who called the subversive tactics between the Dems and the GOP war, yes. But I think you missed the reason I posted it. In the post, Kotare gave a fair (if rudimentary) definition for war. I will repeat it again for the benefit of everybody reading this thread: Only when political discourse breaks down entirely, and two sides take up arms against each other, does politics become war. If there is not armed conflict between two groups, it is not war. It is politics, diplomacy, economics, cultural diffusion - but it is not war.</blockquote> So it is only warfare when two groups of armed combatants are physically fighting each other? Then why is psychological operations considered a form of warfare by the US government under the CIA. And they had Economic and Political Warfare agencies during WW2. <blockquote>World War II There was extensive use of psychological operations in World War II, from the strategic to the tactical. National-level white propaganda was the responsibility of the Office of War Information, while black propaganda was most often the responsibility of the Morale Operations branch of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS).[14] Psychological operations planning started before the US entry into the war, with the creation of the Office of the Coordinator of Inter-American Affairs (CIAA), under Nelson Rockefeller, with the responsibility for psychological operations targeted at Latin America.[15] Special operations and intelligence concerning Latin America was a bureaucratic problem throughout the war. Where the OSS eventually had most such responsibilities, the FBI had its own intelligence system in Latin America. On 11 July 1941, William Donovan was named the Coordinator of Information, which subsequently became the OSS. At first, there was a unit called the Foreign Information Service inside COI, headed by Robert Sherwood, which produced white propaganda outside Latin America.[15] To deal with some of the bureaucratic problems, the Office of War Information (OWl) was created with Elmer Davis as director. FIS, still under Sherwood, became the Overseas Branch of OWl, dealing in white propaganda. OSS was created at the same time. Donovan obtained considerable help from the British, especially with black propaganda, from the British Political Warfare Executive (PWE), part of the Ministry of Economic Warfare. PWE was a sister organization to the Special Operations Executive, which conducted guerilla warfare. The British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, also known as MI6), was an essentially independent organization. For the US, the OSS included the functions of SIS and SOE, and the black propaganda work of PWE.</blockquote> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_Operations_(United_States)#History_of_US_Psychological_Warfare" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_Operations_(United_States)#History_of_US_Psychological_Warfare</a> "The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media." --William Colby, former CIA Director, quoted by Dave Mcgowan, Derailing Democracy Anatoly Karlin on "Things I don't like in this forum" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/things-i-dont-like-in-this-forum#post-185 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:06:55 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 185@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ No plugin for that, TG - sorry. Anatoly Karlin on "Do you want an invite to Google Wave?" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/do-you-want-an-invite-to-google-wave#post-184 Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:30:41 +0000 Anatoly Karlin 184@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ <img src="http://wave.google.com/help/wave/images/logo2.gif"> I recently got an invite to trial <a href="http://wave.google.com/">Google Wave</a> from Google. I've got 5 invites to give out now, please PM me or reply here if interested. I'll send the invitation direct to the e-mail you registered here with, unless you give another one you'd prefer me to use. First come first served. <blockquote>What is a wave? A wave is equal parts conversation and document. People can communicate and work together with richly formatted text, photos, videos, maps, and more. A wave is shared. Any participant can reply anywhere in the message, edit the content and add participants at any point in the process. Then playback lets anyone rewind the wave to see who said what and when. A wave is live. With live transmission as you type, participants on a wave can have faster conversations, see edits and interact with extensions in real-time.</blockquote> It's currently very much under-developed and needs to get much wider penetration before Wave actually become useful to more than 0.1% of its current users. That said, some people in the hi-tech industry assure me Google Wave is the next big thing that will displace conventional e-mail and chat, and revolutionize collaborative online work. solar sun on "Bosnia: The Nexus of international Islamic terrorism." http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/bosnia-the-nexus-of-international-islamic-terrorism#post-183 Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:58:14 +0000 solar sun 183@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Commenting on Greg R. Lawson blog on his piece on the forth coming <a href="http://gregrlawson.com/2009/11/17/ksm-and-the-flaw-of-international-law.aspx">KSM trial in New York</a> I was surprised that he did not know about the extensive connections to Bosnia and 9/11 and networks it has to international terrorism and organised crime establishing a connection to Middle Eastern, European and African Islamic terrorist organisations and numerous Islamic front NGO’s that still operate to this day. Every single major terrorist attack has connections to Bosnia. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyjTmtJWTLc" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyjTmtJWTLc</a> Every major terrorism expert and organisation has written about the Bosnia connection to International terrorism as well as featuring in documentaries like in the German produced History Channel Bin Laden and Al Qaeda documentary (forgotten the name of it). I don’t know what Stratfor’s has said about this and there links to Islamic terrorism and western intelligence. I will post articles and info in the future from main stream sources detailing the extent and connections to Bosnia. solar sun on "pre-launch testing..." http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/testing/page/2#post-182 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 02:18:01 +0000 solar sun 182@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Just testing to see if this video from a website I think it uses the same flash video code as other video hosting site that should run on the forim. We'll see if it works. <script src="http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/embed/1096"></script> <embed src="http://static.themis-media.com/media/global/movies/player/flowplayer.commercial-3.1.5.swf" flashvars="config=http://www.themis-media.com/videos/config/1096-02168a9eedde4acb4386430df2391fd7.js%3Fembed%3D1" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" quality="high" bgcolor="#000000" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.adobe.com/go/getflashplayer" width="480" height="294" wmode="opaque"></embed> <a href="http://www.tackfilm.se/en/?id=1259453751375RA31" rel="nofollow">http://www.tackfilm.se/en/?id=1259453751375RA31</a> T. Greer on "The Covert War Against Russia" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/the-covert-war-against-russia/page/2#post-181 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:23:09 +0000 T. Greer 181@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ <blockquote>Perhaps I should have clarified modern warfare or warfare in the 20th/21st Century. They did not have mass media propaganda to influence the mass public in 416BC.</blockquote> Perhaps you should have. I am still waiting on a solid definition for the word "war". Funnily enough though, they did have mass propaganda in 416 BC. Here is an excerpt from the afore mentioned Melian Dialogue: <blockquote> Cleomedes, son of Lycomedes, and Tisias, son of Tisimachus, the generals, encamping in their territory with the above armament, before doing any harm to their land, sent envoys to negotiate. These the Melians did not bring before the people, but bade them state the object of their mission to the magistrates and the few; upon which the Athenian envoys spoke as follows: Athenians. Since the negotiations are not to go on before the people, in order that we may not be able to speak straight on without interruption, and deceive the ears of the multitude by seductive arguments which would pass without refutation (for we know that this is the meaning of our being brought before the few), what if you who sit there were to pursue a method more cautious still?</blockquote> Crawley, Richard, trans. The History of the Peloponnesian War. (New York: Barnes and Nobles Classics.) 2006. Book 7, chapter 5. But as said before, this is besides the point. To bring us back to the point - You argue that propaganda is a form of warfare - with a bit more nuance, of course: <blockquote> Without the deliberate mass media and government pretext for war there would not be a war so it is actual function of war itself.</blockquote> And no war has expanded to include every precondition for armed conflict. The problem with this is easy to see. There are dozens of prerequisites that must be met before a war between two states is possible. A country must have people, for one. Is the production of food, the watering of fields, or the mothering of sons also a function of war? Every conflict throughout history has total war, if we are to take you by your word. <blockquote>But there was still a population increase as physical economic structure and institutions sustainable like functioning health care system, housing, etc. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_(1989)" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_(1989)</a> It was not until Soros/Harvard cronies economic "shock therapy" on Russia was there severe demographic, economic and social degradation and with the destruction of the physical industrial output of the country which many regions depended on. And that in effect brings an increase in alcohol consumption, organised crime, drug use, skilled labour shortage, etc.</blockquote> Now we have another definition of war! So now a country cannot be part of a conflict unless it faces "social degradation" and the "destruction of physical industrial output". This seems quite curious to me. I may be wrong, but I have been told that the United States was a participator in the Second World War. Did they not have industrial growth during that time? <blockquote>I think he is talking about subversive tactics between the 2 political parties in the US obviously the Democrats and Republicans are not at war with each other and are not seeking to undermine the US or have hostile intent towards its people or overthrow of the government or have links to foreign governments and intelligence services despite the fact there is barely a dimes bit of difference between the two parties.</blockquote> Kotare's piece was prompted by a blogger who called the subversive tactics between the Dems and the GOP war, yes. But I think you missed the reason I posted it. In the post, Kotare gave a fair (if rudimentary) definition for war. I will repeat it again for the benefit of everybody reading this thread: Only when political discourse breaks down entirely, and two sides take up arms against each other, does politics become war. If there is not armed conflict between two groups, it is not war. It is politics, diplomacy, economics, cultural diffusion - but it is not war. GregRLawson on "Towards a New Middle East Policy" http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/topic/towards-a-new-middle-east-policy#post-180 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:19:02 +0000 GregRLawson 180@http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/ Below are several comments I left at multiple websites including the Atlantic Council and Atlantic Community. They are the beginnings of what I think a new American posture in the Middle East may need to look like. Comments welcome: <a href="http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Turkey%3A_Still_a_Bridge_Between_West_and_East%3F_" rel="nofollow">http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Turkey%3A_Still_a_Bridge_Between_West_and_East%3F_</a> <blockquote>Turkey's future is open. It has the opportunity to verify its's post-Ottoman, Kemalist trajectory should Europe be pushed into grudingly opening their eyes to a strategic necessity or it can choose to become a new pole of Islamism competing with Wahhabism of the Saudi strain or Shiism of Iranian flavor. For the U.S. and for Europe, it is obvious that a Turkey within the "West" is better than watching it compete for status in the Middle East. Turkey can be a linchpin in a more multifaceted energy policy for Europe and can represent a bridge to the Middle East for the "West" provided it does not slide into a hard Islamist phase. All that said, it is probably time for the U.S. to begin contingency planning for an eastward shifting Turkey. While pushing Europe to be willing to integrate Turkey is appropriate, it has to be assumed that this may fail due to recalcitrance on either or both of the European and Turkish sides. The balance of power between Sunni and Shia has shifted since the 2003 Iraq War. With Turkey, perhaps, returning with focus to the region, the U.S. may need to recalibrate its relations across the board. Consequently, the U.S. must shore up its relations with current and potential allies in the Middle East. Notable among these is Israel, but, probably a serious examination of our long-term arrangements with Shiite Iraq and Iran needs to be considered and considered in tandem as opposed to seperately as seems often to be the case. A bold, "Nixon goes to China" moment with Iran could reset the geopolitics of the Middle East and create new realities that shake up conventional thinking. This might even reorient Turkish calculations and make it more amenable to Western interests even absent a full throated endorsement by the Europeans.</blockquote> <a href="http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/iran-problems-go-beyond-nukes" rel="nofollow">http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/iran-problems-go-beyond-nukes</a> <blockquote>It is time for a "Nixon Goes to China" moment. While no doubt, President Obama envisions this as a hoped for eventual possibility, it is unlikely he will take the adequate steps to make such a seeming fantasy reality. While Bush would not talk to the Iranians (at least not publicly until late in his Administration), President Obama has bordered on being obsequious. Both were wrong because they are trying to bottle up a problem that can't be bottled up. Nuclear proliferation is already a reality and will only increase. It is time to forget the overburdened and impossible to adequately implement non-proliferation regime. Attempting to block nations on an ad hoc basis will only squander scarce resources. Better to face up to the scary reality of numerous nations seeking and acquiring nuclear weapons. Once this is realized and leaders stop clinging to fantasies of stopping proliferation and embracing pie in the sky notions of "Global Zero," the sooner they can reembrace deterrence. Iran, contrary to assertions by many, is likely to be deterrable. However, deterrence will need to be quite explicit and quite harsh to be effective. If a line is drawn on what is unacceptable, any crossing of that line must not yield "discussions", "negotiations", or "processes." Such a crossing must be made unbearable so that it won't seriously be contemplated. If aggressive deterrence can be established psychologically (the domain where deterrence actually resides), then a "deal" can be made that will allow Iran a certain degree of security within well defined limits. The regime can be assured that no external forces or externally supported internal forces (as opposed to solely internal forces) will overthrow it. It may even be possible to envision allowing it to develop nuclear power (and even a limited weapon) capability to save face. Naturally, all of the concerns over terrorism and expanding Iranian influece throughout the Middle East seem to mitigate against this notion. Indeed, it is counterintuitive for many to consider. However, the hinge once more pivots upon the quality of deterrence and the legitimacy (and perceived seriousness) of the threats backing up that deterrence. Iran will go nuclear. The U.S. can either find a creative way of dealing with this undesired but unstoppable predicament, or it can continue levelling empty threats of military action and scrambling about for meaningful (rather than superficial) sanctions. As for Israel, which clearly feels the Iranian development of a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, robust defense cooperation must continue. It must also be made quite clear that the U.S. understands its fears and would not allow an attack upon it to be answered with anything except the most aggressive of responses. Without these assurances, it would be close to impossible for Israel not to respond unilaterally.</blockquote>