First, Anatoly, notice you put Nightwish video on site. Interesting, I've alaways liked the Gathering, Lacuna Coil, Within Temptation, all similar to Nightwish.

Substantively,over at Spengler's column an interesting piece.

The cover story in this month’s American Conservative–Pat Buchanan’s paleocon platform–is an interview with whistleblower Sibel Edmonds, a former Turkish and Farsi translator for the FBI who has been under Federal gag order for several years. I had a peripheral relationship to the intelligence community many years ago–I consulted for the head of plans at the Reagan NSC, Dr. Norman A. Bailey–and I learned not to get involved with spook stories. There simply is no way that an outsider can pick a path through the wilderness of mirrors without getting hopelessly lost. Edmonds is a geyser of allegations about illegal leaks of US classified documents to foreign governments, including Israel’s. Her American Conservative interviewer Philip Girardi summarizes what she has to say as follows:

So we have a pattern of corruption starting with government officials providing information to foreigners and helping them make contact with other Americans who had valuable information. Some of these officials, like Marc Grossman, were receiving money directly. Others were receiving business favors: Pentagon associates like Doug Feith and Richard Perle had interests in Israel and Turkey.

As noted, I am not going to speculate as to the veracity of Edmonds’ story. We never find out the truth until the archives are opened to future generations–if ever. But whether classified documents were leaked to Israel with the connivance of Bush administration officials who happen to be Jewish is a very small part of Edmonds’ story.

Only in passing, and with no elaboration, is the name of Fetallah Gulen mentioned in the American Conservative account. Gulen is the 68-year-old spiritual leader of an Islamist movement that claims to have branches in 80 countries, and–with the help of Turkey’s Islamist government–controls large parts of the Turkish media. Edmonds’ most astonishing allegation, widely publicized over the past several years, is that the CIA sponsored Gulen in cooperation with Saudi and Pakistani partners as an instrument against Russia and China in Central Asia.

In 2008 Gulen, who live in exile in the United States, was denied a Green Card after a Philadelphia hearing. The secular Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported at the time:

Gülen’s financial resources were detailed in the public prosecutor’s arguments, which claimed that Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Turkish government, and the Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, were behind the Gülen movement. It stated that some businessmen in Ankara donated 10 to 70 percent of their annual income to the movement and that it corresponded to $20,000 to $300,000 per year per person. It added that one businessman in Istanbul donated $4-5 million each year and that young people graduating from Gülen’s schools donated between $2,000 and $5,000 each year.

The Russians have always thought that Gulen was sponsored by CIA, and kicked his organization out of their territory in 2002.

A year ago Edmonds told a Turkish blogger:

You’ve got to look at the big picture. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the super powers began to fight over control of Central Asia, particularly the oil and gas wealth, as well as the strategic value of the region.

Given the history, and the distrust of the West, the US realized that it couldn’t get direct control, and therefore would need to use a proxy to gain control quickly and effectively. Turkey was the perfect proxy; a NATO ally and a puppet regime. Turkey shares the same heritage/race as the entire population of Central Asia, the same language (Turkic), the same religion (Sunni Islam), and of course, the strategic location and proximity.

This started more than a decade-long illegal, covert operation in Central Asia by a small group in the US intent on furthering the oil industry and the Military Industrial Complex, using Turkish operatives, Saudi partners and Pakistani allies, furthering this objective in the name of Islam.

This is why I have been saying repeatedly that these illegal covert operations by the Turks and certain US persons dates back to 1996, and involves terrorist activities, narcotics, weapons smuggling and money laundering, converging around the same operations and involving the same actors.

And I want to emphasize that this is “illegal” because most, if not all, of the funding for these operations is not congressionally approved funding, but it comes from illegal activities.

And one last thing, take a look at the people in the State Secrets Privilege Gallery on my website and you will see how these individuals can be traced to the following; Turkey, Central Asia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – and the activities involving these countries.

All this would be an oddity except for the allegation that elements of the US government were in cahoots with the Gulen organization in fomenting rebellion by the ethnic Turks of Xinjiang, the Uyghurs. Last summer’s Uyghur riots were viewed with extreme concern by Beijing. Turkey’s Islamist prime minister Erdogan denounced the Chinese government for “genocide” against the Uyghurs, an remarkably overwrought response.

The group of officials whom Edmonds fingered has less to do with Israel than with promoting an Islamist strategy for the US in central Asia. As the cited Turkish blog reports:

Marc Grossman, former State Department #3 and former Turkish ambassador, and one of the key named individuals in Sibel’s case, is currently receiving $1.2 million per annum from Ihlas Holding, a Gulen-linked Turkish conglomerate. Sibel has previously referred to Ihlas as ‘semi-legitimate‘ and ‘alleged shady‘ – and emphasized that Grossman’s current payoff is a result of services performed while he was in office.

Grossman’s predecessor as ambassador in Turkey was Morton Abramowitz – in fact, Grossman actually worked under Abramowitz in Ankara for a number of years. During that period, the US opened an espionage investigation into activities at the embassy involving Major Douglas Dickerson, a weapons procurement specialist for Central Asia. Dickerson and his wife, an FBI translator, later became famous when they tried to recruit Sibel to spy for this criminal network.

Abramowitz, who is not listed in Sibel’s State Secrets Privilege Gallery, wrote a letter in support of Gulen for his immigration case. He has long advocated the use of Islamic fighters in furtherance of US interests, including the Afghan mujaheddin against the Soviets and the Kosovo Liberation Army during the war in the Balkans, acting as an advisor to the Kosovar Albanians.

Another player from Sibel’s Gallery is Enver Yusuf Turani – Prime Minister of East Turkistan, a ‘country’ recognized by only one country, the United States. East Turkistan, aka Xinjiang, is officially a part of China, and home to the Uyghur people and the “Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement,” a UN-nominated terrorist organization “funded mainly by Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network and received training, support and personnel from both the al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime of Afghanistan.” In fact, the Uyghurs constitute a significant percentage of detainees – at least 22 – at Guantanamo Bay since 2001. Five of those have been set free, and were eventually sent to Albania, amid much controversy.

[b]There is deep suspicion in Beijing that some elements of the US government are supporting the efforts of the Gulen movement to destabilize Xinjiang. That is playing with matches near rocket fuel. The one thing Beijing will not tolerate is an effort to sponsor provincial rebellions. That represents an existential threat to China.

The Turkish shift to Islamism and the ascendancy of the Gulen organization in Turkish politics is the last thing that Israel wants. Israel’s longstanding alliance with secular Turkey is in shambles, in a major setback for Israeli foreign policy. The brunt of Edmonds’ allegations involves alleged skullduggery that is profoundly hostile to Israeli interests. Yet Philip Girardi has managed to twist the story into a trivial story about document-peddling to the Israeli embassy.

Again, I do not know the veracity of these allegations, or what the Obama administration presently thinks of such matters. The bulk of Edmonds story refers to former American officials (some of whom happen to have Jewish names, e.g., Morton Abramovitz, and others who do not, e.g., Graham Fuller) who allegedly committed American resources to supporting dangerous Islamists in an attempt to destabilize America’s largest trading partner.

But one thing is certain: the obsessive, paranoid Judeophobia at The American Conservative prompts the magazine to feature allegations of tertiary importance, and ignore what would be (if true) a political scandal of monstrous proportions.

http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/spengler/2009/10/16/more-judeophobic-paranoia-at-pat-buchanans-shop/

Happy New Year! My vision is posted at New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions.

Please use this thread to do your own forecasting / crystal-ball gazing.

1) World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside.

2) Obama’s honeymoon period is over, his approval ratings are on the downslide, and his major domestic and foreign policy initiatives have almost all failed. Republicans will carry the mid-term elections in 2010, but there is a strong mood of apathy and a sense that what is really needed is a new party, a new politics – though this will only start playing a great role in the post-Obama, or post-2012, era. Rising violence in Iraq (perhaps abetted by Iran, to demonstrate to the US the dangers of attacking it); a false quiet in Afghanistan, as the Taleban limit activity to conserve their strength while the US presence in Afghanistan is strong (they know the Americans will retreat the bulk of their forces soon enough anyway).

In the UK, Gordon Brown (New Labour) will almost certainly lose to James Cameron (Conservatives) in the mid-2010 elections.

3) Possible wars. Foremost looms the shadow of Iran and the bomb, of course. I doubt the US will attack in 2010, unless Israel forces its hand. It will first exhaust its options with sanctions, etc, which will almost certainly be ineffective. The Iranian IRGC-linked hardliners in power (figurehead – Ahmadinejad), under pressure from the Rafsanjani / Mousavi clerical clan, will not yield, and will remain defiant internationally to justify increasing their hold on internal power. There will be tension, but no war – especially since the US still needs to develop its Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the next-generation bunker-buster, to have a high level of confidence that a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear installations have truly done their job. (True, postponing the strike to 2011 or 2012 makes the world economy more vulnerable to disruption because oil prices will be higher then and oil supplies tighter, but then again I highly doubt the administration takes “peak oil” into consideration in its strategic planning). Likelihood: 25%; Severity: 6.

What is much more likely to happen is a new war between Israel and Hezbollah. Since 2006, Israel may have infiltrated Hezbollah, aided by internal splits within the organization, and has taken stock of lessons learned during the unsuccessful last war; it may now want to send a signal to Iran and preemptively incapacitate one of its most effective means for retaliating against Israel into the bargain. Israeli special forces are more than capable of producing a false flag, even if Hezbollah refrains from doing it for them. Furthermore, Hezbollah is causing Saudi Arabia trouble by sending fighters and weapons to the Shia insurgency in Yemen fighting the Saudis; SA would appreciate an Israeli crippling attack on Hezbollah, and may give concessions to Israel, such as allowing it to use its airspace in a strike against Iran (the US has said it will shoot down Israeli planes flying to Iran over Iraq). This further increases the incentives for Israel to pummel Hezbollah, this time round with a real, large-scale ground invasion. Likelihood: 50%; Severity: 3.

A new Russia-Georgia war remains a serious possibility, if Saakashvili uses his rapidly rebuilding military forces to make another megalomaniac lunge at reclaiming South Ossetia, or if Russia orchestrates a false flag to give itself the justification to roll in the tanks to Tbilisi and set up a puppet regime. In the latter case, the “new cold war” atmosphere of August 2008 will begin to appear to be distinctly jovial. Likelihood: 10%; Severity: 4.

Finally, we should note that a) Azerbaijan and Armenia have a bitter rivalry, cultural and geographic over the Armenian-populated and -occupied Azeri enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, b) though it lost a war to Armenia in the early 1990’s, Azerbaijan has been implementing a rapid military modernization since 2006 with the help of oil pipeline transit revenue from the BTC, and its military budget alone is now equivalent to Armenia’s entire state budget, c) Armenia and Turkey are slowly moving towards a reconciliation under Russian brokerage, which threatens Azerbaijan’s strategic position, and d) Armenian-Azeri talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have recently collapsed. The obstacle to war is that Turkey and the US, though friendly with Azerbaijan, are very unlikely to give it direct support; but Armenia is in the CSTO military alliance with Russia. An Azeri attack will almost certainly lead to a decisive Russian response, furthermore there is a large Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia. Unlike Saakashvili, Aliyev is a rational leader, and for now Russian and Turkey have a mutual interest in keeping things contained. That said, the possibility of a new war cannot be fully discounted – especially if it is simultaneous with the chaos unleashed by a US-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies.

Expect instability, but not collapse, in Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, some or all of the Baltic states. Despite the occasional rhetoric, there is very little chance of a new Korean war, a Venezuela-Colombia war, or an Israel-Syria war.

4) Given that Russia’s demography has continued improving even in 2009, a year of deep economic contraction and scare stories (false) of an abortion apocalypse, it is almost certain that it will continue improving further in 2010 and that the year will see the first year of positive population growth since 1994 (or 2009). Birth rate = 12.5-13.0 (reasons), Death rate = 13.5-14.0 (a reason), Net Migration = 1.5-2.0, all / 1000. Economic growth of around 3-5% of GDP sounds reasonable. Lots of privatizations and corruption investigations as part of the Surkov clan’s struggle against the siliviki and “their” state companies. Ukraine under Yanukovych will join Eurasec or the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, but is yet unlikely to join the CSTO or give Russian 2nd language status.

5) Oil production in 2010 will be around the same as 2009 – increased demand will collide with geological depletion to keep output stable. Oil prices in H1 will remain at 70-90$, and will rise to 90-110$ in H2 on the basis that background geological depletion will be cancelled out by OPEC going back on its 2009 production cuts to fuel the ongoing global recovery. Of course, if there are serious confrontations with Iran, the oil price will veer right off the historical charts.

6) No major AGW-related physical events (except for a heatwave or two), given that solar irradiation remains at an unusually long trough – expect the fireworks by 2012-15. AGW skepticism will become more popular in the wake of Climategate. China and its proxies will prevent any more significant action being taken at the next UN climate change summit in Mexico, than was “achieved” in Copenhagen. By year-end the performance of the world’s top supercomputer will exceed 3 petaflops (repeat of 2009 prediction).

7) China’s growth will slow from around 8% in 2009, to perhaps 5% in 2010 as it cuts back on the loose credit in recognition of the problems this is going to create further down the line (this is already happening). Otherwise, expect China to continue keeping a low profile as the US insists on shooting itself in the foot.