I do not have enough time to comment on this one, but I think the story will be appreciated by members of this forum:

RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS FIELD TEST GEOENGINEERING
Chris Mooney. The Intersection. 14 December 2009.

I am going start a thread which is of vital importance and which got me interested in Russia in the first place that since the Mid 70's and especially when the Soviet Union started to dissolve in 89 and pre-planned agenda to reshaped the map of Europe and Eurasia along a pro-US/British axis eliminating a potential of an Eastern block economic sphere with Germany and a genocidal war strategy specifically targeted against the destruction of Russia but also the Eurasian sphere in general.

The methods through the main instruments that they wish to achieve this are

a) Economic - Tying down the Russian economy into the US global system through the IMF reforms dismantling the manufacturing industry of the post USSR Russian economy and putting the country under control of a handful of western aligned Jewish Oligarchs most of which being citizens of Israel and causing a deliberate demographic shift decreasing the ethnic Russian population who are not able to sustain population growth with the high birth rate amongst Muslim non-ethnic Russian population.

b) Terrorism and organised crime – Starting in 89 foreign Jihadist’s scholars and NGO’s start coming into Dagestan and since 92 the CIA, MI6, BND, French, Turkey and Saudi Arabian intelligence started covertly training and setting up organised crime networks from Moscow and St Petersburg to Chechnya and making contacts in the Russian army to supply weapons to Chechen militants with the first step being to create a bridge and network links between Middle Eastern terrorists organisations with European and African groups and a financial conduit to finance there terrorist activities in Chechnya and Eurasia. Just like the Nazis planned in Operation Blue during WW2. The Al Qaeda network is a hoax with no evidence it existed in the first place and this is what we are fighting against.

c) Subversion - Through media and NGO’s. Presenting Russia in a negative image through front NGO’s inside Russia and abroad with phoney human rights groups which are financed by the British foreign office or NED or Soros Human Rights Watch and the heavily financed by the likes of Soros Amnesty International (which is said to be a creation of MI6 although I can’t find any evidence of who funds Amnesty) and financing political groups in Russia through NED/ Soros “Other Russia” coalition and affiliates like the AEI, Jamestown Olin foundation. And abroad in 100% negative attacks and opinions in the mass media in Europe, Canada, Australia, Arabs countries and the US.

d) NATO and regional alliances - We already seen this in the Balkans against the Serbs especially the Kosovo war in 99 and the Georgian conflict with Soros funded and US supported coloured revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine the later 2 fascist anti-Russian regimes and NATO military presence for a future assault against Russia sabotaging gas supplies to Europe.

e) History and revisionism - Bring up Communist past as a point to portray Russia as evil and aggressive and Russian mentality as psychotic although the Communist COUP in Russia was financed, organised and lead by non Russians and lets be un PC about it Jewish Marxists groups and exiled in Europe and the US who comprised the bulk of the first Communist supported and fully backed by western media and government up until the end of WW2. Also note that the Neocons mostly Jewish ex-Communist former followers of Leon Trotsky who shifted to “conservatism” during the late 60’s when USSR broke of relations with Israel to save trade and military agreements.

One of the major figures involved in this is George Soros who I will do a biography of his history and activities in a later post.

Happy New Year! My vision is posted at New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions.

Please use this thread to do your own forecasting / crystal-ball gazing.

1) World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside.

2) Obama’s honeymoon period is over, his approval ratings are on the downslide, and his major domestic and foreign policy initiatives have almost all failed. Republicans will carry the mid-term elections in 2010, but there is a strong mood of apathy and a sense that what is really needed is a new party, a new politics – though this will only start playing a great role in the post-Obama, or post-2012, era. Rising violence in Iraq (perhaps abetted by Iran, to demonstrate to the US the dangers of attacking it); a false quiet in Afghanistan, as the Taleban limit activity to conserve their strength while the US presence in Afghanistan is strong (they know the Americans will retreat the bulk of their forces soon enough anyway).

In the UK, Gordon Brown (New Labour) will almost certainly lose to James Cameron (Conservatives) in the mid-2010 elections.

3) Possible wars. Foremost looms the shadow of Iran and the bomb, of course. I doubt the US will attack in 2010, unless Israel forces its hand. It will first exhaust its options with sanctions, etc, which will almost certainly be ineffective. The Iranian IRGC-linked hardliners in power (figurehead – Ahmadinejad), under pressure from the Rafsanjani / Mousavi clerical clan, will not yield, and will remain defiant internationally to justify increasing their hold on internal power. There will be tension, but no war – especially since the US still needs to develop its Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the next-generation bunker-buster, to have a high level of confidence that a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear installations have truly done their job. (True, postponing the strike to 2011 or 2012 makes the world economy more vulnerable to disruption because oil prices will be higher then and oil supplies tighter, but then again I highly doubt the administration takes “peak oil” into consideration in its strategic planning). Likelihood: 25%; Severity: 6.

What is much more likely to happen is a new war between Israel and Hezbollah. Since 2006, Israel may have infiltrated Hezbollah, aided by internal splits within the organization, and has taken stock of lessons learned during the unsuccessful last war; it may now want to send a signal to Iran and preemptively incapacitate one of its most effective means for retaliating against Israel into the bargain. Israeli special forces are more than capable of producing a false flag, even if Hezbollah refrains from doing it for them. Furthermore, Hezbollah is causing Saudi Arabia trouble by sending fighters and weapons to the Shia insurgency in Yemen fighting the Saudis; SA would appreciate an Israeli crippling attack on Hezbollah, and may give concessions to Israel, such as allowing it to use its airspace in a strike against Iran (the US has said it will shoot down Israeli planes flying to Iran over Iraq). This further increases the incentives for Israel to pummel Hezbollah, this time round with a real, large-scale ground invasion. Likelihood: 50%; Severity: 3.

A new Russia-Georgia war remains a serious possibility, if Saakashvili uses his rapidly rebuilding military forces to make another megalomaniac lunge at reclaiming South Ossetia, or if Russia orchestrates a false flag to give itself the justification to roll in the tanks to Tbilisi and set up a puppet regime. In the latter case, the “new cold war” atmosphere of August 2008 will begin to appear to be distinctly jovial. Likelihood: 10%; Severity: 4.

Finally, we should note that a) Azerbaijan and Armenia have a bitter rivalry, cultural and geographic over the Armenian-populated and -occupied Azeri enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, b) though it lost a war to Armenia in the early 1990’s, Azerbaijan has been implementing a rapid military modernization since 2006 with the help of oil pipeline transit revenue from the BTC, and its military budget alone is now equivalent to Armenia’s entire state budget, c) Armenia and Turkey are slowly moving towards a reconciliation under Russian brokerage, which threatens Azerbaijan’s strategic position, and d) Armenian-Azeri talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have recently collapsed. The obstacle to war is that Turkey and the US, though friendly with Azerbaijan, are very unlikely to give it direct support; but Armenia is in the CSTO military alliance with Russia. An Azeri attack will almost certainly lead to a decisive Russian response, furthermore there is a large Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia. Unlike Saakashvili, Aliyev is a rational leader, and for now Russian and Turkey have a mutual interest in keeping things contained. That said, the possibility of a new war cannot be fully discounted – especially if it is simultaneous with the chaos unleashed by a US-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies.

Expect instability, but not collapse, in Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, some or all of the Baltic states. Despite the occasional rhetoric, there is very little chance of a new Korean war, a Venezuela-Colombia war, or an Israel-Syria war.

4) Given that Russia’s demography has continued improving even in 2009, a year of deep economic contraction and scare stories (false) of an abortion apocalypse, it is almost certain that it will continue improving further in 2010 and that the year will see the first year of positive population growth since 1994 (or 2009). Birth rate = 12.5-13.0 (reasons), Death rate = 13.5-14.0 (a reason), Net Migration = 1.5-2.0, all / 1000. Economic growth of around 3-5% of GDP sounds reasonable. Lots of privatizations and corruption investigations as part of the Surkov clan’s struggle against the siliviki and “their” state companies. Ukraine under Yanukovych will join Eurasec or the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, but is yet unlikely to join the CSTO or give Russian 2nd language status.

5) Oil production in 2010 will be around the same as 2009 – increased demand will collide with geological depletion to keep output stable. Oil prices in H1 will remain at 70-90$, and will rise to 90-110$ in H2 on the basis that background geological depletion will be cancelled out by OPEC going back on its 2009 production cuts to fuel the ongoing global recovery. Of course, if there are serious confrontations with Iran, the oil price will veer right off the historical charts.

6) No major AGW-related physical events (except for a heatwave or two), given that solar irradiation remains at an unusually long trough – expect the fireworks by 2012-15. AGW skepticism will become more popular in the wake of Climategate. China and its proxies will prevent any more significant action being taken at the next UN climate change summit in Mexico, than was “achieved” in Copenhagen. By year-end the performance of the world’s top supercomputer will exceed 3 petaflops (repeat of 2009 prediction).

7) China’s growth will slow from around 8% in 2009, to perhaps 5% in 2010 as it cuts back on the loose credit in recognition of the problems this is going to create further down the line (this is already happening). Otherwise, expect China to continue keeping a low profile as the US insists on shooting itself in the foot.

On 1st Jan 2010.

56% Russians are for the DP, while 25% are against (poll). In previous polls the figures were typically in the 60%'s-70%'s for.

Putin, Medvedev, and the Orthodox Church hierarchy are against, so the moratorium will almost certainly be renewed. Furthermore,there will probably be an unbelievable tsunami of complaints from Europe if it isn't.

My own thinking on DP is that it probably isn't needed in stable, low-crime societies like those of Western Europe, but is highly useful and justifiable in particularly violent and/or corrupt nations like South Africa, Venezuela, Iraq, etc. With a homicide rate of 16 / 100,000 (about 10x the West European and 3x the US rate) and what most commentators consider to be a huge amount of high-level corruption, I believe it is in Russia's interests to ignore West European complaints about the "human rights" of criminals (they knowingly forfeited them through their actions anyway) and re-institute the DP - swift and certain for added deterrent value - for 1st-degree homicide, serial rape, child rape, people trafficking, gross corruption (>1mn $), and serious cases of national treason. Russia will get kicked out of the Council of Europe, but should it care? Let democracy rule.

Russia is far more likely to collapse more than the US due to several factors in fact it is most likely a probability.

Form of government and it's inherent problems bureaucracy, corruption, etc.

Skilled labour shortage in key sectors.

Dilapidated 70's Soviet era infrastructure

Demographic shift as I referenced before The Finnish Department of Defence report on Russia back in February called “Islam – From Russia of Challenges”.

Another striking statistic is related to the growth of Russia’s Muslim population. Russia is about to face big demographic challenges. Russia’s population is diminishing by approximately 400 000 persons per year; yet, the population in 15 Russian regions increased in 2005. Each of them, such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetya in the North Caucasus has sizeable Muslim populations. The life expectancy among Muslim males is far greater than that of ethnic Russians.33 Paul Goble, an expert of Islam and the Muslim population in Russia, estimates that the majority of Russian military recruits will be Muslims in 2015. In 2020 twenty per cent of the citizens will be Muslims, provided that the current demographic trends continue. If no changes occur, within three decades the majority of the citizens of the Russian Federation will be Muslims.

As well as Chinese immigration into Siberia.

Fully supported by western policy makers.

In fact I think this has been part of western political strategy since the collapse of the USSR. AEI brags about this projection of Russia's future.

Geographical location bordering the Caucasus, China and Central Asia which a serious potential of China and or one of the Central Asian Republics destabilising into civil warfare causing a mass influx of refugees into Russia.

Size of the country and sparse border

Organised crime and terrorism

Economic sabotage holding back loans, sanctions on Russian companies, freezing of foreign banks, etc.

I can't say Russia's future is looking to promising if it follows it's current course.

It can turn it around where Russia changes it's strategy and perspectives forming new alliances and economic ties and strengthen historic alliances in key strategic locations.

I'll comment later on what I would do if I were the President of Russia.

Is there any way to get the 1989 and 2002 Census data for Russia?