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First, Anatoly, notice you put Nightwish video on site. Interesting, I've alaways liked the Gathering, Lacuna Coil, Within Temptation, all similar to Nightwish.

Substantively,over at Spengler's column an interesting piece.

The cover story in this month’s American Conservative–Pat Buchanan’s paleocon platform–is an interview with whistleblower Sibel Edmonds, a former Turkish and Farsi translator for the FBI who has been under Federal gag order for several years. I had a peripheral relationship to the intelligence community many years ago–I consulted for the head of plans at the Reagan NSC, Dr. Norman A. Bailey–and I learned not to get involved with spook stories. There simply is no way that an outsider can pick a path through the wilderness of mirrors without getting hopelessly lost. Edmonds is a geyser of allegations about illegal leaks of US classified documents to foreign governments, including Israel’s. Her American Conservative interviewer Philip Girardi summarizes what she has to say as follows:

So we have a pattern of corruption starting with government officials providing information to foreigners and helping them make contact with other Americans who had valuable information. Some of these officials, like Marc Grossman, were receiving money directly. Others were receiving business favors: Pentagon associates like Doug Feith and Richard Perle had interests in Israel and Turkey.

As noted, I am not going to speculate as to the veracity of Edmonds’ story. We never find out the truth until the archives are opened to future generations–if ever. But whether classified documents were leaked to Israel with the connivance of Bush administration officials who happen to be Jewish is a very small part of Edmonds’ story.

Only in passing, and with no elaboration, is the name of Fetallah Gulen mentioned in the American Conservative account. Gulen is the 68-year-old spiritual leader of an Islamist movement that claims to have branches in 80 countries, and–with the help of Turkey’s Islamist government–controls large parts of the Turkish media. Edmonds’ most astonishing allegation, widely publicized over the past several years, is that the CIA sponsored Gulen in cooperation with Saudi and Pakistani partners as an instrument against Russia and China in Central Asia.

In 2008 Gulen, who live in exile in the United States, was denied a Green Card after a Philadelphia hearing. The secular Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported at the time:

Gülen’s financial resources were detailed in the public prosecutor’s arguments, which claimed that Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Turkish government, and the Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, were behind the Gülen movement. It stated that some businessmen in Ankara donated 10 to 70 percent of their annual income to the movement and that it corresponded to $20,000 to $300,000 per year per person. It added that one businessman in Istanbul donated $4-5 million each year and that young people graduating from Gülen’s schools donated between $2,000 and $5,000 each year.

The Russians have always thought that Gulen was sponsored by CIA, and kicked his organization out of their territory in 2002.

A year ago Edmonds told a Turkish blogger:

You’ve got to look at the big picture. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the super powers began to fight over control of Central Asia, particularly the oil and gas wealth, as well as the strategic value of the region.

Given the history, and the distrust of the West, the US realized that it couldn’t get direct control, and therefore would need to use a proxy to gain control quickly and effectively. Turkey was the perfect proxy; a NATO ally and a puppet regime. Turkey shares the same heritage/race as the entire population of Central Asia, the same language (Turkic), the same religion (Sunni Islam), and of course, the strategic location and proximity.

This started more than a decade-long illegal, covert operation in Central Asia by a small group in the US intent on furthering the oil industry and the Military Industrial Complex, using Turkish operatives, Saudi partners and Pakistani allies, furthering this objective in the name of Islam.

This is why I have been saying repeatedly that these illegal covert operations by the Turks and certain US persons dates back to 1996, and involves terrorist activities, narcotics, weapons smuggling and money laundering, converging around the same operations and involving the same actors.

And I want to emphasize that this is “illegal” because most, if not all, of the funding for these operations is not congressionally approved funding, but it comes from illegal activities.

And one last thing, take a look at the people in the State Secrets Privilege Gallery on my website and you will see how these individuals can be traced to the following; Turkey, Central Asia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – and the activities involving these countries.

All this would be an oddity except for the allegation that elements of the US government were in cahoots with the Gulen organization in fomenting rebellion by the ethnic Turks of Xinjiang, the Uyghurs. Last summer’s Uyghur riots were viewed with extreme concern by Beijing. Turkey’s Islamist prime minister Erdogan denounced the Chinese government for “genocide” against the Uyghurs, an remarkably overwrought response.

The group of officials whom Edmonds fingered has less to do with Israel than with promoting an Islamist strategy for the US in central Asia. As the cited Turkish blog reports:

Marc Grossman, former State Department #3 and former Turkish ambassador, and one of the key named individuals in Sibel’s case, is currently receiving $1.2 million per annum from Ihlas Holding, a Gulen-linked Turkish conglomerate. Sibel has previously referred to Ihlas as ‘semi-legitimate‘ and ‘alleged shady‘ – and emphasized that Grossman’s current payoff is a result of services performed while he was in office.

Grossman’s predecessor as ambassador in Turkey was Morton Abramowitz – in fact, Grossman actually worked under Abramowitz in Ankara for a number of years. During that period, the US opened an espionage investigation into activities at the embassy involving Major Douglas Dickerson, a weapons procurement specialist for Central Asia. Dickerson and his wife, an FBI translator, later became famous when they tried to recruit Sibel to spy for this criminal network.

Abramowitz, who is not listed in Sibel’s State Secrets Privilege Gallery, wrote a letter in support of Gulen for his immigration case. He has long advocated the use of Islamic fighters in furtherance of US interests, including the Afghan mujaheddin against the Soviets and the Kosovo Liberation Army during the war in the Balkans, acting as an advisor to the Kosovar Albanians.

Another player from Sibel’s Gallery is Enver Yusuf Turani – Prime Minister of East Turkistan, a ‘country’ recognized by only one country, the United States. East Turkistan, aka Xinjiang, is officially a part of China, and home to the Uyghur people and the “Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement,” a UN-nominated terrorist organization “funded mainly by Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network and received training, support and personnel from both the al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime of Afghanistan.” In fact, the Uyghurs constitute a significant percentage of detainees – at least 22 – at Guantanamo Bay since 2001. Five of those have been set free, and were eventually sent to Albania, amid much controversy.

[b]There is deep suspicion in Beijing that some elements of the US government are supporting the efforts of the Gulen movement to destabilize Xinjiang. That is playing with matches near rocket fuel. The one thing Beijing will not tolerate is an effort to sponsor provincial rebellions. That represents an existential threat to China.

The Turkish shift to Islamism and the ascendancy of the Gulen organization in Turkish politics is the last thing that Israel wants. Israel’s longstanding alliance with secular Turkey is in shambles, in a major setback for Israeli foreign policy. The brunt of Edmonds’ allegations involves alleged skullduggery that is profoundly hostile to Israeli interests. Yet Philip Girardi has managed to twist the story into a trivial story about document-peddling to the Israeli embassy.

Again, I do not know the veracity of these allegations, or what the Obama administration presently thinks of such matters. The bulk of Edmonds story refers to former American officials (some of whom happen to have Jewish names, e.g., Morton Abramovitz, and others who do not, e.g., Graham Fuller) who allegedly committed American resources to supporting dangerous Islamists in an attempt to destabilize America’s largest trading partner.

But one thing is certain: the obsessive, paranoid Judeophobia at The American Conservative prompts the magazine to feature allegations of tertiary importance, and ignore what would be (if true) a political scandal of monstrous proportions.

http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/spengler/2009/10/16/more-judeophobic-paranoia-at-pat-buchanans-shop/

I do not have enough time to comment on this one, but I think the story will be appreciated by members of this forum:

RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS FIELD TEST GEOENGINEERING
Chris Mooney. The Intersection. 14 December 2009.

... because we have geoengineering.

I will assume that most of you know what geonengineering is. In a sense we have been active participants in this type of engineering much longer than most imagine; the current climate crisis is a direct result of the unintentional engineering of our planet's atmosphere. While it has been a taboo subject (a 'green' transformation being the only politically correct response to AGW these days), the reality of intentional geoengineering is something analysts need to come to terms with.

Many have predicted that unchecked AGW shall reap destruction upon the civilizations of the Earth. The author of this forum has gone so far to say that predicting anything past 2030-2040 is near impossible as AGW means that "all bets are off everywhere." (I ask skeptics and moderates (i.e. the IPCC) to accept this characterization of future warming for the sake of argument.) Clearly climate change poses a near existential threat to developing and developed countries alike.

This is why it will never happen. Three things guarantee that sometime in the next fifty years major climate changing geoengineering projects will come to pass.

The first is that geoengineering is cheap. This is a relative of course - something cheap to the Pentagon is not cheap to the rest of us. But this is exactly my point: geonengineering is just another government project. In comparison to military budgets and social welfare safety nets, geoengineering comes off the cheaper, to say nothing of the trillions of dollars that will be needed to mitigate emissions on a large scale.

The second is that geoengineering can be done unilaterally. Countries are hesitant to commit to C02 reductions without guarantees that the rest of the world will walk off the cliff of economic suicide with them. The unequal distribution of the ill effects of climate change also makes states hesitant to pitch in - by doing so they are doing little more than underwriting the security and stability of regions across the poorer areas of the world with their own precious gold. Making things worse is that emissions can only be lowered multilaterally. If one big emitter does not go along with the plan, then the whole scheme amounts to nothing.

Not so with geoengineering. One state is all that you need to engineer the climate. Granted, the state must have a secure source of funds, but this does not provide a problem to the largest emitters. And if the effects of climate change are to be as dangerous as has been suggested, there is no reason that a country particularly susceptible to ecosystem collapse (say, China or India) will not unilaterally cool the world's climate, international consensus be damned.

The final pertinent aspect of geoengineering is its timescale. The dirty secret of the climate debates is that emission reductions won't have an affect for a good 40-50 years; this is within the timespan of doom prophesied by Lymas et al. Making things worse, we have almost undoubtedly passed the point of systematic risk - a positive feedback loop has been established that ensures that warming will continue regardless of emissions.

Geoengineering is the only way to stop this loop. It is also a policy whose ramifications will quickly be felt - we possess the power to cool the Earth for years at a time. The implications of this are frightening (think of a world in which we change climatic conditions to favor one side or another that is engaged in war), but they are real nonetheless.

FIN

Putin made quite a splash with his test flight of the T-50.

Certain NATO countries-- viz., the UK, France and Germany-- have been working on a revolutionary mode of aerial warfare that, when they unveil it, makes the T-50 look like an obese ostrich.

Air combat-- has changed.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXjVzxcIP_0]

I don't have time just now to post all the information but as I been saying Brzezinski has been positioning NATO forces in key positions allied with strategic allies in preparation for war against the Eurasian sphere just like all the pieces were in place prior to WW2 using Nazi Germany as a proxy to target the USSR and annex it’s strategic locations of natural resources in the Caucasus and Siberia which dates back to western support of the Bolshevik revolution and failed anti-Bolshevik forces in the Caucasus and Siberia.

The article SSR #10: Europe, The Black Continent forms a basis of discussion for the Europa forum. Just to get things going. Please visit the above link for the full article.

This is the first of fifteen Sublime Strategic Reports (SSRs) covering global trends, regions, and geopolitics, a list of which you can see on the sidebar to the right on the main forum page. I start off by looking at Europe, defined as the region under the influence of Western Christianity and/or the European Union (not Russia or Turkey, which will be covered in a later Eurasia Report).

[Warning: it's quite pessimistic, unconventional, and even "doomerish", and probably too obsessed with the realist interpretation of international relations. <img src="http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/forum/my-plugins/bb-smilies/default/icon_wink.gif" title=":wink:" class="bb_smilies" /> ]

--------------------

The Big Questions

1. Demographic problems: aging, low fertility and Eurabia?
2. The unsustainability of the modern welfare state?
3. Cultural decline & reaction against liberal rationalism?
4. The return of Great Power politics? (e.g. Mearsheimer 1990), & the decline of the EU and growing centrality of Franco-German relations, - or will the EU survive, and if so in what form?
5. National trends: a secure, "flourishing" France; a troubled but powerful Germany; Poland beset on two fronts; marginalized Britain, Spain & Italy, all in decline; Sweden as preeminent Baltic power; on the outskirts, both Russia and Turkey increase their power - realistic?
6. The retreat into authoritarianism and militarism? Europe as a Black Continent?

[A possible future European alliance / categorization system. Black - the expansionist Germans, Turks and Russians. Dark gray - France and its allies, Poland and Sweden. Gray - the relatively weak "balancing powers": Britain will lean more towards France, Italy more towards Germany, but none want to see a European hegemon. Light gray - too weak to really matter].

...
Conclusions

As a result of the epochal shifts in the global balance of power brought on by peak oil and the waning of Pax Americana, within the next decade the geopolitical structure of Europe will experience a profound transformation. The post-historical EU project will die when history returns to Europe. As Britain weakens and splinters into its constituent parts, and as the Mediterranean powers retreat under the weight of their manifold demographic, fiscal, and economic problems, the old struggle between France, Germany and Russia for European hegemony will resume.

This will entail a complex balance of power system. A powerful France will seek to encircle an ailing but still formidable Germany by allying itself with Visegrad and Sweden, while maximizing its own power by asserting itself in its Mediterranean backyard. Germany will make a wary alliance with Russia, and try to break free of its encirclement by threatening Poland, undermining France, and hedging with a Turkish alliance. Meanwhile, Russia and Turkey may come into intense geopolitical competition over the fate of the Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia; however, should Turkey focus its expansion into the Middle East, their relations will likely be quiescent. (But this issue is for the Eurasia SSR). As the world energy and climate crisis worsens with every passing decade, Europe will return to its future – the Black Continent.

Hi, I'm interested in Yalta conference and what geopolitical aims Stalin achieved and how it influenced USSR in few decades (1953-1970.
According to Mackinder theory of heartland and sea power struggle and his view of crucial control of eastern Europe for wider command of the Heartland (who controls eastern Europe rules the Heartland; who rules the Heartland rules the world Island; and who rules the World Island rules the World.) How it happened that USSR at the end of the war and after it... established satelite countries in eastern Europe couldn't dominate so much in world affairs? (USSR was the first class superpower as USA although she hadn't had signifance in foreign affairs that much like USA). Or should have USSR breached even more Ocean realm? What was the USSR navy role? How it changed? In the begining it was only on tactic level (not on strategy level). What was the dividends of Yalta conference besides taking more lands, access to seas in Baltic, Black seas and in far eastern lands (Kuril islands)? And also besides UN organization?

I am going start a thread which is of vital importance and which got me interested in Russia in the first place that since the Mid 70's and especially when the Soviet Union started to dissolve in 89 and pre-planned agenda to reshaped the map of Europe and Eurasia along a pro-US/British axis eliminating a potential of an Eastern block economic sphere with Germany and a genocidal war strategy specifically targeted against the destruction of Russia but also the Eurasian sphere in general.

The methods through the main instruments that they wish to achieve this are

a) Economic - Tying down the Russian economy into the US global system through the IMF reforms dismantling the manufacturing industry of the post USSR Russian economy and putting the country under control of a handful of western aligned Jewish Oligarchs most of which being citizens of Israel and causing a deliberate demographic shift decreasing the ethnic Russian population who are not able to sustain population growth with the high birth rate amongst Muslim non-ethnic Russian population.

b) Terrorism and organised crime – Starting in 89 foreign Jihadist’s scholars and NGO’s start coming into Dagestan and since 92 the CIA, MI6, BND, French, Turkey and Saudi Arabian intelligence started covertly training and setting up organised crime networks from Moscow and St Petersburg to Chechnya and making contacts in the Russian army to supply weapons to Chechen militants with the first step being to create a bridge and network links between Middle Eastern terrorists organisations with European and African groups and a financial conduit to finance there terrorist activities in Chechnya and Eurasia. Just like the Nazis planned in Operation Blue during WW2. The Al Qaeda network is a hoax with no evidence it existed in the first place and this is what we are fighting against.

c) Subversion - Through media and NGO’s. Presenting Russia in a negative image through front NGO’s inside Russia and abroad with phoney human rights groups which are financed by the British foreign office or NED or Soros Human Rights Watch and the heavily financed by the likes of Soros Amnesty International (which is said to be a creation of MI6 although I can’t find any evidence of who funds Amnesty) and financing political groups in Russia through NED/ Soros “Other Russia” coalition and affiliates like the AEI, Jamestown Olin foundation. And abroad in 100% negative attacks and opinions in the mass media in Europe, Canada, Australia, Arabs countries and the US.

d) NATO and regional alliances - We already seen this in the Balkans against the Serbs especially the Kosovo war in 99 and the Georgian conflict with Soros funded and US supported coloured revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine the later 2 fascist anti-Russian regimes and NATO military presence for a future assault against Russia sabotaging gas supplies to Europe.

e) History and revisionism - Bring up Communist past as a point to portray Russia as evil and aggressive and Russian mentality as psychotic although the Communist COUP in Russia was financed, organised and lead by non Russians and lets be un PC about it Jewish Marxists groups and exiled in Europe and the US who comprised the bulk of the first Communist supported and fully backed by western media and government up until the end of WW2. Also note that the Neocons mostly Jewish ex-Communist former followers of Leon Trotsky who shifted to “conservatism” during the late 60’s when USSR broke of relations with Israel to save trade and military agreements.

One of the major figures involved in this is George Soros who I will do a biography of his history and activities in a later post.

I am a frequent visitor to Sublime Oblivion and I'm happy that you decided to start these forums. I don't enjoy the other forums that I know about these subjects, so I wish the best luck for this one.

Here are some first impressions:

a) There are too many forums. I have run forums before and I made the same mistake. It's better to star with fewer forums and only add new ones when and if needed. Creating new forums is only justified after the volume of active topics makes it impractical to be aware of what is being currently debated. (I think...)

b) The colours look nice. And damn hard to read. At the end of a work day maybe my eyes will rebel and demand something easier to read. Also the theme not consistent with the look of the blog. I think it would be better if there were visual coherence.

Over the last month and a half a significant news story has come forth that has not deserved its relative lack of attention. See, as it turns out, the IPCC was wrong. Dead wrong.

The IPCC put forward the claim in its last working report that if CO2 emissions were released unabated then the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035, and by way of consequent drought, kill millions of people dependent on rivers whose source lies in the Himalayas glacial run off. (That includes, off the top of my head, the Yangtze, the Mekong, the Ganges, the Meghna, and the Indus.)

Two months ago the Indian environmental ministry published their own report that claimed the opposite -- the Himalayas were in no way about to dry off the face of the Earth.

Coming as it did before Copenhagen, most Western environmentalists dismissed the report as a cheap ploy to strengthen their negotiating position before the conference. (To see my thoughts on that conference, see here.

But, it turns out the Indians may have been onto something. A few scientists and reporters dug into the report... and discovered that the 2035 figure was baseless. The real number was not 2035, but 2350.

I could tell the story of how all this happened, but others have already blazed that trail better than I can. And I present:

By the Way, there will still be glaciers in 2035.
John Nielsen-Gammon. Atmo.Sphere. 12 December 2009.

Peer Review in the IPCC
Roger Peilke Jr. Roger Peilke Jr’s Blog. 23 December 2009.

Seperating Climate Facts from Fears
Editors. New Scientist. 13 January 2010.

Happy New Year! My vision is posted at New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions.

Please use this thread to do your own forecasting / crystal-ball gazing.

1) World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside.

2) Obama’s honeymoon period is over, his approval ratings are on the downslide, and his major domestic and foreign policy initiatives have almost all failed. Republicans will carry the mid-term elections in 2010, but there is a strong mood of apathy and a sense that what is really needed is a new party, a new politics – though this will only start playing a great role in the post-Obama, or post-2012, era. Rising violence in Iraq (perhaps abetted by Iran, to demonstrate to the US the dangers of attacking it); a false quiet in Afghanistan, as the Taleban limit activity to conserve their strength while the US presence in Afghanistan is strong (they know the Americans will retreat the bulk of their forces soon enough anyway).

In the UK, Gordon Brown (New Labour) will almost certainly lose to James Cameron (Conservatives) in the mid-2010 elections.

3) Possible wars. Foremost looms the shadow of Iran and the bomb, of course. I doubt the US will attack in 2010, unless Israel forces its hand. It will first exhaust its options with sanctions, etc, which will almost certainly be ineffective. The Iranian IRGC-linked hardliners in power (figurehead – Ahmadinejad), under pressure from the Rafsanjani / Mousavi clerical clan, will not yield, and will remain defiant internationally to justify increasing their hold on internal power. There will be tension, but no war – especially since the US still needs to develop its Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the next-generation bunker-buster, to have a high level of confidence that a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear installations have truly done their job. (True, postponing the strike to 2011 or 2012 makes the world economy more vulnerable to disruption because oil prices will be higher then and oil supplies tighter, but then again I highly doubt the administration takes “peak oil” into consideration in its strategic planning). Likelihood: 25%; Severity: 6.

What is much more likely to happen is a new war between Israel and Hezbollah. Since 2006, Israel may have infiltrated Hezbollah, aided by internal splits within the organization, and has taken stock of lessons learned during the unsuccessful last war; it may now want to send a signal to Iran and preemptively incapacitate one of its most effective means for retaliating against Israel into the bargain. Israeli special forces are more than capable of producing a false flag, even if Hezbollah refrains from doing it for them. Furthermore, Hezbollah is causing Saudi Arabia trouble by sending fighters and weapons to the Shia insurgency in Yemen fighting the Saudis; SA would appreciate an Israeli crippling attack on Hezbollah, and may give concessions to Israel, such as allowing it to use its airspace in a strike against Iran (the US has said it will shoot down Israeli planes flying to Iran over Iraq). This further increases the incentives for Israel to pummel Hezbollah, this time round with a real, large-scale ground invasion. Likelihood: 50%; Severity: 3.

A new Russia-Georgia war remains a serious possibility, if Saakashvili uses his rapidly rebuilding military forces to make another megalomaniac lunge at reclaiming South Ossetia, or if Russia orchestrates a false flag to give itself the justification to roll in the tanks to Tbilisi and set up a puppet regime. In the latter case, the “new cold war” atmosphere of August 2008 will begin to appear to be distinctly jovial. Likelihood: 10%; Severity: 4.

Finally, we should note that a) Azerbaijan and Armenia have a bitter rivalry, cultural and geographic over the Armenian-populated and -occupied Azeri enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, b) though it lost a war to Armenia in the early 1990’s, Azerbaijan has been implementing a rapid military modernization since 2006 with the help of oil pipeline transit revenue from the BTC, and its military budget alone is now equivalent to Armenia’s entire state budget, c) Armenia and Turkey are slowly moving towards a reconciliation under Russian brokerage, which threatens Azerbaijan’s strategic position, and d) Armenian-Azeri talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have recently collapsed. The obstacle to war is that Turkey and the US, though friendly with Azerbaijan, are very unlikely to give it direct support; but Armenia is in the CSTO military alliance with Russia. An Azeri attack will almost certainly lead to a decisive Russian response, furthermore there is a large Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia. Unlike Saakashvili, Aliyev is a rational leader, and for now Russian and Turkey have a mutual interest in keeping things contained. That said, the possibility of a new war cannot be fully discounted – especially if it is simultaneous with the chaos unleashed by a US-Israeli war with Iran and its proxies.

Expect instability, but not collapse, in Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, some or all of the Baltic states. Despite the occasional rhetoric, there is very little chance of a new Korean war, a Venezuela-Colombia war, or an Israel-Syria war.

4) Given that Russia’s demography has continued improving even in 2009, a year of deep economic contraction and scare stories (false) of an abortion apocalypse, it is almost certain that it will continue improving further in 2010 and that the year will see the first year of positive population growth since 1994 (or 2009). Birth rate = 12.5-13.0 (reasons), Death rate = 13.5-14.0 (a reason), Net Migration = 1.5-2.0, all / 1000. Economic growth of around 3-5% of GDP sounds reasonable. Lots of privatizations and corruption investigations as part of the Surkov clan’s struggle against the siliviki and “their” state companies. Ukraine under Yanukovych will join Eurasec or the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, but is yet unlikely to join the CSTO or give Russian 2nd language status.

5) Oil production in 2010 will be around the same as 2009 – increased demand will collide with geological depletion to keep output stable. Oil prices in H1 will remain at 70-90$, and will rise to 90-110$ in H2 on the basis that background geological depletion will be cancelled out by OPEC going back on its 2009 production cuts to fuel the ongoing global recovery. Of course, if there are serious confrontations with Iran, the oil price will veer right off the historical charts.

6) No major AGW-related physical events (except for a heatwave or two), given that solar irradiation remains at an unusually long trough – expect the fireworks by 2012-15. AGW skepticism will become more popular in the wake of Climategate. China and its proxies will prevent any more significant action being taken at the next UN climate change summit in Mexico, than was “achieved” in Copenhagen. By year-end the performance of the world’s top supercomputer will exceed 3 petaflops (repeat of 2009 prediction).

7) China’s growth will slow from around 8% in 2009, to perhaps 5% in 2010 as it cuts back on the loose credit in recognition of the problems this is going to create further down the line (this is already happening). Otherwise, expect China to continue keeping a low profile as the US insists on shooting itself in the foot.

Here I will make announcement to changes in the site and moderating decisions.

Good critical documentary as an introduction into western involvement and geo-politics behind the wars in the former Yugoslavia.

Quite long though 2 hrs 45 mins.

Yugoslavia: The Avoidable War

Part 1:

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=5860186121153047571&ei=gELZSrH4FJPQ-AajofyrCg&q=yugoslavia+the+avoidable+war&hl=en#

Part 2:

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=5860186121153047571&ei=gELZSrH4FJPQ-AajofyrCg&q=yugoslavia+the+avoidable+war&hl=en#docid=6371060303901674397

Yugoslavia: The Avoidable War

Part 1 of 18:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed2E3jzwmo8

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Commenting on Greg R. Lawson blog on his piece on the forth coming KSM trial in New York I was surprised that he did not know about the extensive connections to Bosnia and 9/11 and networks it has to international terrorism and organised crime establishing a connection to Middle Eastern, European and African Islamic terrorist organisations and numerous Islamic front NGO’s that still operate to this day.

Every single major terrorist attack has connections to Bosnia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyjTmtJWTLc

Every major terrorism expert and organisation has written about the Bosnia connection to International terrorism as well as featuring in documentaries like in the German produced History Channel Bin Laden and Al Qaeda documentary (forgotten the name of it).

I don’t know what Stratfor’s has said about this and there links to Islamic terrorism and western intelligence.

I will post articles and info in the future from main stream sources detailing the extent and connections to Bosnia.

Does my name show up? Is it successfully integrated with WP?

Below are several comments I left at multiple websites including the Atlantic Council and Atlantic Community. They are the beginnings of what I think a new American posture in the Middle East may need to look like.

Comments welcome:

http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Turkey%3A_Still_a_Bridge_Between_West_and_East%3F_

Turkey's future is open. It has the opportunity to verify its's post-Ottoman, Kemalist trajectory should Europe be pushed into grudingly opening their eyes to a strategic necessity or it can choose to become a new pole of Islamism competing with Wahhabism of the Saudi strain or Shiism of Iranian flavor.

For the U.S. and for Europe, it is obvious that a Turkey within the "West" is better than watching it compete for status in the Middle East. Turkey can be a linchpin in a more multifaceted energy policy for Europe and can represent a bridge to the Middle East for the "West" provided it does not slide into a hard Islamist phase.

All that said, it is probably time for the U.S. to begin contingency planning for an eastward shifting Turkey. While pushing Europe to be willing to integrate Turkey is appropriate, it has to be assumed that this may fail due to recalcitrance on either or both of the European and Turkish sides.

The balance of power between Sunni and Shia has shifted since the 2003 Iraq War. With Turkey, perhaps, returning with focus to the region, the U.S. may need to recalibrate its relations across the board. Consequently, the U.S. must shore up its relations with current and potential allies in the Middle East. Notable among these is Israel, but, probably a serious examination of our long-term arrangements with Shiite Iraq and Iran needs to be considered and considered in tandem as opposed to seperately as seems often to be the case.

A bold, "Nixon goes to China" moment with Iran could reset the geopolitics of the Middle East and create new realities that shake up conventional thinking. This might even reorient Turkish calculations and make it more amenable to Western interests even absent a full throated endorsement by the Europeans.

http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/iran-problems-go-beyond-nukes

It is time for a "Nixon Goes to China" moment. While no doubt, President Obama envisions this as a hoped for eventual possibility, it is unlikely he will take the adequate steps to make such a seeming fantasy reality.

While Bush would not talk to the Iranians (at least not publicly until late in his Administration), President Obama has bordered on being obsequious. Both were wrong because they are trying to bottle up a problem that can't be bottled up.

Nuclear proliferation is already a reality and will only increase. It is time to forget the overburdened and impossible to adequately implement non-proliferation regime. Attempting to block nations on an ad hoc basis will only squander scarce resources. Better to face up to the scary reality of numerous nations seeking and acquiring nuclear weapons.

Once this is realized and leaders stop clinging to fantasies of stopping proliferation and embracing pie in the sky notions of "Global Zero," the sooner they can reembrace deterrence.

Iran, contrary to assertions by many, is likely to be deterrable. However, deterrence will need to be quite explicit and quite harsh to be effective. If a line is drawn on what is unacceptable, any crossing of that line must not yield "discussions", "negotiations", or "processes." Such a crossing must be made unbearable so that it won't seriously be contemplated.

If aggressive deterrence can be established psychologically (the domain where deterrence actually resides), then a "deal" can be made that will allow Iran a certain degree of security within well defined limits. The regime can be assured that no external forces or externally supported internal forces (as opposed to solely internal forces) will overthrow it. It may even be possible to envision allowing it to develop nuclear power (and even a limited weapon) capability to save face.

Naturally, all of the concerns over terrorism and expanding Iranian influece throughout the Middle East seem to mitigate against this notion. Indeed, it is counterintuitive for many to consider. However, the hinge once more pivots upon the quality of deterrence and the legitimacy (and perceived seriousness) of the threats backing up that deterrence.

Iran will go nuclear. The U.S. can either find a creative way of dealing with this undesired but unstoppable predicament, or it can continue levelling empty threats of military action and scrambling about for meaningful (rather than superficial) sanctions.

As for Israel, which clearly feels the Iranian development of a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, robust defense cooperation must continue. It must also be made quite clear that the U.S. understands its fears and would not allow an attack upon it to be answered with anything except the most aggressive of responses. Without these assurances, it would be close to impossible for Israel not to respond unilaterally.

I don't like to reference the http://www.rense.com/ website but there has been talk about the swine flu in Ukraine being a bio-weapon about an alleged Israeli microbiologist who allegedly 3 months ago warned that Baxter’s International was creating a biological weapon to be distributed via vaccine in Ukraine.

Has Baxter Released A BioWeapon In Ukraine?
By David Rothscum
11-2-9

Evidence appears to suggest that Baxter International may be responsible for a new deadly outbreak of viral pneumonia in Ukraine.

(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTo3LbhcA75I) In February of 2009, Bloomberg reported that Baxter "accidentally" sent vaccine material containing both live Avian bird flu and seasonal influenza to multiple laboratories worldwide. A laboratory decided to test the vaccine on its ferrets and the ferrets all unexpectedly died.

(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTo3LbhcA75I) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTo3LbhcA75I

It must be noted that Baxter has made a "mistake" like this before. (http://www.aegis.com/news/re/1996/RE960283.html) Blood products produced by Baxter once containd HIV. Thousands of haemophiliacs died due to this, and many went on to infect their spouses.

http://www.aegis.com/news/re/1996/RE960283.html

Later in the year, a bizarre story emerged on the internet. The news was full of reports on (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/14/man-suspected-of-making-t_n_259330.html) a man named Joseph Moshe who was arrested after a hours long standoff with the police because he had supposedly made threats against the White House. The man was able to withstand multiple rounds of tear gas...which left L.A. police officers amazed.

However, the internet community was very skeptical of the true reasons behind the man's arrest. Comments on the Huffington Post website immediately began pouring in about an unreported side to this story, namely that Joseph Moshe was a Mossad Agent who specialized in biological warfare and who called into a radio show to warn people about a biological weapn that was being made by Baxter international that would be spread through vaccine and would cause a plague upon its release.

Although anyone can make a doomsday claim and we should never believe anyone (and it must be said that the Truth movement handled this well, the message was spread without being proclaimed as gospel) the amazing part about Moshe's claim was the location where Moshe said the biological weapon was being produced.

Moshe claimed that Baxter's laboratory in the Ukraine out of all places was creating this biological weapon. All of this came out in the beginning of August, which is more than 2 months before the situation that is currently unfolding. For Moshe to correctly name the country where a new epidemic would be unleashed, requires either inside information, or an incredible coincidence as anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics can confirm for himself.

Let us assume for a moment that every person on our planet has an equal chance of giving rise to a new lethal epidemic due to a virus that mutates as it spreads through his body. (http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2009/ds/kn/kn_e/kn0609_e.html)

(http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2009/ds/kn/kn_e/kn0609_e.html) Ukraine has 46 million inhabitants. (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html) The current estimated global population is about 6.7 billion. This means that if a new epidemic were to arise, the chance of this epidemic starting in the Ukraine would be 0.69%. (http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2009/10/29/202374) However, it appears that this virus is a form of flu. This makes the odds of being right when guessing that a deadly flu is going to break out in the Ukraine even smaller. The reason for this is that back in early August the vast majority of influenza infections were found in different countries than the Ukraine. (http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/292540,
ukraine-confirms-first-swine-flu-death-quarantine-ordered.html) In fact, on 30 Oktober, Earthtimes reported that Ukraine had officially reported only two cases of swine flu, and no deaths, until last Friday. This deadly epidemic appears to have arrived out of nowhere in the Ukraine.
(http://www.biomedexperts.com/Profile.bme/78637/Moshe_Bar-Joseph)

(http://www.biomedexperts.com/Profile.bme/78637/Moshe_Bar-Joseph) Moshe's biomed profile appears to confirm his position as a microbiologist. Furthermore, this page with Baxter's contact information for its Ukraine office confirms that Baxter has a presence in the Ukraine.

http://www.biomedexperts.com/Profile.bme/78637/Moshe_Bar-Joseph

(http://www.stevequayle.com/dead_scientists/UpdatedDeadScientists.html) It must also be noted that massive numbers of microbiologists have been dying bizarre deaths. This case of what appears to be a brave man who sacrificed it all to bring us this message may explain why so many microbiologists have been murdered. The fact that this man managed to predict an outbreak of highly lethal influenza in a place where we would least expect it, 2 months before it a actually occured, lends credence to his claim that Baxter International is responsible for the outbreak and shows that top microbiologists can pose a problem to the people responsible for this ongoing disaster.

This is a developing story, expect to see possible updates on David Rothscum Reports as more information on what is happening in Ukraine becomes available.

Update 1: For the purpose of keeping information from disappearing, I am going to mirror most information I can find on here.

Comments on the Huffington post website on an article about Moshe's arrest documenting his claim that the Influenza virus in a vaccine manufactured by Baxter in Ukraine replicates RNA from the 1918 flu and is meant as a bioweapon:

(http://www.infowars.com/images/josephmosheukraine.JPG)

Update 2: (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jlasqqSlUIt56rnsbgDSaDdjU9kw) The Ukrainian government wants to impose travel restrictions on people across the nation to stop the virus from spreading.

Update 3: According to the Huffington post comments I cited above, Dr. Moshe claimed that the virus used replicated RNA of the 1918 Spanish flu. (http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/influenza%
20phil%201918.htm) Symptoms of the 1919 Flu include victims being drenched in blood:

American were familiar with the flu; it sent you to bed, made you miserable for 3 or 4 days with fever, muscle aches, and congestion, then left you shaky for about a week. It made millions sick, yet killed only the oldest, youngest, and most feeble.

The 1918 influenza was not the flu Americans were familiar with. It was a horror that turned victims bluish-black then drowned them with their own body fluids. the death toll was highest in the ages 15 to 40, those in the peak of health. The victims would be fine one minute and the next incapacitated, fever-racked, and delirious. Temperatures rose to 104-106 degrees, skin turned blue, purple, or deep brown from lack of oxygen. Massive pneumonia attacked the lungs, filling them with fluid; blood gushed from the nose. Death was quick, savage, and terrifying.

(http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2009/10/29/202374) Compare this to reports that are coming out from Ukraine:

Five persons have died from the flue in Lviv, four men and one woman, says emergency hospital chief doctor Myron Borysevych.

Two of the dead patients were in the 22-35 age group, with 2 others over 60. He diagnosed the disease as viral pneumonia.

Viral tests can last from one to two weeks. They are complicated and not done in Lviv. The course of the disease was very quick. The symptoms included very high temperature and short-wind cough.

All the six dead young people had symptoms of severe hemmorhagic pneumonia. The disease starts slowly, with temperature rising to 37.2 ­ 37.3 degrees, slight cough and pain in joints. Nasal catarrh developed at the end of the second or third day. Autopsy revealed that the lungs were soaked with blood, the oblast chief specialist said.

http://www.rense.com/general88/bax.htm

Also covered in another website.

Three months ago, Israeli Mossad agent Joseph Moshe, who specializes in biological warfare, was taken down by Los Angeles police, allegedly for "threatening the White House." What wasn't reported by the media at the time was that Moshe just had "called into a radio show to warn people about a biological weapon that was being made by Baxter international that would be spread through vaccine and would cause a plague upon its release." (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/14/man-suspected-of-making-t_n_259330.html) Moshe also claimed that Ukraine would be the country in which it first would be released. This was in early August. How did he know?

Three months ago, Moshe stated that this pandemic would begin in Ukraine, a country free of the flu until last week. That is too much for coincidence. Maybe it simply is coincidence, but I do not believe in coincidence. And, suddenly, lots of people are dying in Ukraine from this flu outbreak - a much more deadly form of the flu than has been seen anywhere else.

Baxter Pharmaceuticals has a vaccine development and production lab in Ukraine and in the past has been proven to have shipped dangerous live agents to other countries, notably AIDS in blood products that killed thousands of people a few years ago. This past spring, Czechoslovakia happened to test some Baxter vaccine and found live virus, something about which you may have heard.

Baxter, the source of the flu vaccine now being distributed over there, cannot be trusted! The Ukrainian people are not being told any of this or about what this Moshe character said just prior to being arrested in August over here.
http://www.nickelrant.com/rants/091103rant.htm

http://www.nickelrant.com/rants/091103rant.htm

Interesting to see if Wayne Madsen at RT covers the story.

This would give the US/NATO perfect excuse and there Orange regime cover to impose Martial law, postpone the election (which they are sure to lose) and bring in NATO/US troops into the country and a cover in training NATO force in an area with biological contaminant as I believe I have mentioned before Chechen and other Islamic militants have been trained in camps in Afghanistan and Panski Gorge to develop chemical and biological weapons. It was even referenced in Colin Powell’s speech to the UN indicating connections to Iraq and international terrorism.