This is a list of articles from the Sublime Oblivion blog relating to geopolitics, futurism, and philosophy. They include many of the themes of my upcoming book. The articles without hyperlinks will likely appear in the future.
Philosophy & Theophilosophy
- I am a Communist – non-serious article taking an unconventional but purer look at the elusive concept of Communism.
- The Tyranny of the Veil – musings on feminism and universal history.
- Green Communism is our Salvation – initial essay on why socialism is necessary to avoid ecological catastrophe.
- Sublime Oblivion: What Might Be Is – there is no essential dividing line between the material and Platonic worlds and our universe is almost certainly a computer simulation nested within an abstract computer program or simulacrum, the truth that hides that there is none.
- What a Picture Wants – an exploration of the sublime.
- Philosophical Musing #1 – Long Live Death!, Totalitarian Aesthetics, & The Power of the Text.
- Green Communism – a vision of a world state based on informatized central planning, universal sousveillance, and ecotechnic spirituality driving the transition to ecological sustainability.
- The Meaning of Sublime Oblivion – on simulation, simulacrum, and apocalypse.
- What I Believe: 2 Year Update – includes an idea for a “new ethics” based on patterns and a Hegelian interpretation of “herstory”.
- Philosophical Musing #2 – Freedom from fear, the only real freedom, The problem is not with the American Empire, but its self-denial, & Socialism Now! – if you want to live.
- Simulation, Simulacrum, and Consciousness – a clearer explanation of how we are illusions living in a Matrix simulation that is itself a simulacrum…
- Philosophical Musings #3 – whatever crap I come up with…
- Baudrillard’s Thought – S&S, On Nihilism, The Spirit of Terrorism…
- Philosophical Musings #2: The Totalitarianism of the System, Freedom from Fear, American Empire, Socialism Now!, What’s Worse?…
- Sublime Oblivion – the old essay in fragments…
History
- Was the French Revolution a Class Struggle? – far from consolidating the historical victory of the commercial bourgeoisie, the Revolution temporarily interrupted their latent ascent; instead, this was in some ways a return to an imagined past and a precursor to modern fascism, especially during the Terror.
- Add in some Russian posts…
The World System: Economy, Society, Demography
- Education as Growth Elixir – I note that the speed of economic convergence largely depends on the “potential gap” between a nation’s human capital and its actual GDP per capita; considering that Russian education system is of First World, this stands it in good stead for rapid economic growth over the next decade.
- Education as Growth Elixir II – continuation of previous…
- Oil Origins of the Crisis – evidence for the theory that the economic crisis was caused by the spike in oil prices.
- Decoupling from the Unwinding – those emerging markets not capsized by the insolvent Western financial system are going to decouple from the economic unwinding once the initial shock from loss of cheap credit and export markets wears off.
- Вторая Великая Депрессия – a summary of my views on the Second Great Depression (in Russian).
- The Struggle between Europe and Mankind – an introduction to the work of Nikolai Trubetzkoy, who theorized that the West and the Rest stand off in fundamental opposition to each other.
- The Road to Economic Sovereignty – Ha-Joon Chang on how historically all “leader” states have risen to economic prominence through mercantilism.
- Freedom, Welfare, and the Future – the future of freedom and the welfare state in an age of limits to growth.
- Towards Singularity! – a collection of links… (Kurzweil.AI, etc)
- Review of The Singularity is Near (R. Kurzweil) – …
- SSR #4: Explaining Growth – collection of 1) education, 2) energy, 3) industrial policy, 4) institutions, & 5) “scope expansion” & level of liberalization…
Global Geopolitics & Trends
- Towards a New Russian Century?– Russia will profit from trends in economic convergence, informatization, and climate change relative to other Powers, and as such may become a swing state determining the balance of power between the two future superpowers – the US and China.
- Bitch Slappers of the Next 100 Years – a review of George Friedman’s book on geopolitical trends over the next 100 years.
- Shifting Winds – geopolitical outline of the next decade, focusing on the multiplying challenges to American hegemony – fiscal insolvency, peak oil, Iranian intransigence, the Afghanistan quagmire, Russia’s resurgence and the rise of China.
- New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions – an overview of 2009 with economic, country-specific, and military predictions for 2010.
- Decade Forecast: The Geopolitics of Scarcity Industrialism – an overview of the history of “abundance industrialism”, the imminent fall of Pax Americana, and the coming age of “scarcity industrialism”… [OD]
Cliodynamics, Limits to Growth, & Collapse
- Russia and Limits to Growth – how Russia should steer itself in a world of limited resources and pollution sinks.
- The Collapse of Complex Societies” (J. Tainter) – an excellent book about the root causes of civilizational collapse – over-investment into and declining marginal returns on complexity.
- Review of “World made by Hand” (J. Kunstler) – a not-too-convincing portrayal of a post-peak oil world.
- Preparing for the Pandemic – how a flu pandemic would possible look like, written at a height of the swine flu scare of April/May 2009.
- Top 10 AGW Denial Myths – nothing to do with Al Gore…
- Notes on “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet” (M. Lynas) – the world’s future degree by torrid degree – and the reason why stopping at 2C is absolutely vital.
- Notes on “The Last Generation” (F. Pearce) – more on AGW.
- The Dilemmas of Global Dimming – why the true extent of global warming has been systematically underestimated and its disturbing implications.
- Review of “Global Catastrophes and Trends” (V. Smil) – excellent book on energy transitions & the future.
- Peak Oil and Resource Depletion – a collection of links to important articles on energy issues.
- The Deeper Meaning of Climategate – a political limit to growth: ignorance and the populist backlash will force an end to “scanning” for solutions.
- Cliodynamics: Mathematizing History – modeling the rise and fall of past civilizations offers very important clues as to the future of the industrial System.
- Surviving Collapse Part 1 – collapse in Argentina.
- Surviving Collapse Part 2 – Dmitry Orlov on the Soviet collapse.
- The Final Gambit: Geoengineering – why the world, in desperation, will eventually try to “hack the Earth” to prevent runaway climate change; and why these efforts will probably fail or lead to a dystopian outcome.
- Ecotechnic Dictatorship is Our Last Hope of Averting Collapse – a comprehensive vision of collapse based on resource depletion, AGW, Limits to Growth, Tainter’s work on complexity, and cliodynamics; and arguments as to why an “ecotechnic dictatorship” is by far our best chance of escaping from our overshoot predicament. This article provoked a vigorous, even vitriolic, debate.
- Human Sustainable Development Index – an alternative way of measuring human development.
- Collapse Ethics: Anarchy or Coercion? – a summary of my ideas on “ecotechnic dictatorship”, with an embedded poll asking people whether they prefer dictatorship to collapse.
- Review of “Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al) – …
- Review of “The Long Descent” (M. J. Greer) – …
- Review of “When the Rivers Run Dry” (Pearce) – particularly significant chapters…
- Best Peak Oil Books – my views on The Long Emergency, Beyond Oil, The Last Oil Shock, Twilight in the Desert, The Party’s Over
- Contours of Collapse – cliodynamics of collapse, metapolitics of collapse, & preparation for collapse… [OD]
- Empire of Darkness – a futurist science fantasy about geoengineering, ecology, and totalitarianism.
Politics & Metapolitics
- Twitter Terror in Moldova – case study of an abortive color revolution.
- The Belief Matrix – a new way of looking at global socio-political trends.
- Diasporas and Barbarians – the mentalities and values of diaspora peoples, such as the Jews, and barbarians.
- Žižek’s Metapolitics – looks at his articles Welcome to the Desert of the Real and When the Party Commits Suicide.
- SSR #7: Principles of Metapolitics – summary of main ideas from Belief Matrix, Diasporas, and Sisyphean Loop…
There Will Be War!
- Violence is Reality – most primitive societies fought the equivalent of the Great Patriotic War every single year.
- Thinking about Nuclear War – contrary to popular opinion, a global nuclear war will not lead to human extinction or even civilizational collapse – especially with the development of new BMD technologies.
- Thinking about Biowar – …
- SSR #8: There Will Be War! – a deep exposition of the future of war…
Europe, The Black Continent
- Review of “America Alone” (M. Steyn) – thoughts on the “Eurabia” theory (it’s 80% wrong).
- One Nation under CCTV – Britain’s decline & current predicament.
- The Return of the Reich? – Germany’s past, present, and future.
- SSR #10: Europe, the Black Continent – beset by aging populations, fiscal challenges, and energy insecurity, Europe is going to return to its fractured, balance-of-power future.
The United States, The Waning Superpower
- USA 2009 = USSR 1989 ? – ways in which the US increasingly resembles the late USSR (insolvency, imperial overstretch, etc).
- America’s Liberty Cycles – why the US is likely to become more “patriotic-reactionary” within a decade, although it will retain a basic level of liberalism & rule of law.
Middle East, House of War
- The Approach of the New Persian Empire – though Iran is going to become more belligerent in the near future, it is likely to moderate and become a Western ally within a decade.
- The US Strategic Dilemma and Persian Deadlock – the unstoppable dynamics drawing the US, Israel, and Iran into a confrontation that could end up being the geopolitical signal for the unraveling of Pax Americana.
- Gulf Inferno – a fictionalized account of a Gulf War between Iran / US vs. Iran & its proxies…
- Islamism in the Belief Matrix – a look at the roots of radical Islamism as clash between traditionalism & modernity, therefore the Sisyphean Loop of the Belief Matrix applies…
Asia, The Return of the Middle Kingdom
- A Long Wait at the Gates of Delusions – an argument against the idea that China will not displace the US as the world’s leading superpower.
- SSR #13: China, The Last Superpower – a vision of China’s imminent accession to its new role as the last superpower of global industrialism, focusing in particular on its coal predicament, CO2 emissions growth, and preparations for neo-colonial expansionism.
- What do the Rest Think? – review of “What does China Think?” and “What does Russia Think” (M. Leonard)…
- The Great Reconvergence – how China’s GDP was highest in pre-industrial age (Angus Madison), and its return to that position…
- China’s Strategic Culture – Chinese geopolitical thought…
Eurasia, The Sisyphean Loop
- Armageddon – how Russia’s youth are rejecting the Idea of the West, the fusion of postmodernist skepticism and civilizational identities and how this will lead to Armageddon.
- Putvedev is Russia’s White Rider – explores Russia’s cycles of consolidation, reassertion, over-extension, stagnation and collapse, and how the rule of Putin and Medvedev fit into this pattern.
- Kremlin Dreams Sometimes Come True – Russia’s high level of human capital, good macroeconomics, and energy windfall stand it in good stead for rapid convergence to Western living standards.
- The Prodigal Superpower” (S. Rosefielde) – the “structural militarization” of the late Soviet economy and its continuing influence on Russia’s political economy.
- Reconsidering Parshev – a new look at the work of the geographical determinist Parshev, who reiterated the idea that Russia’s backwardness can be ascribed to its geographical and climatic handicaps; in this era of economic crisis and rising disillusionment with the West, I posit that Russia is going to return to its future of sovereignty, autarky and sobornost.
- Russia’s Sisyphean Loop & Defending the Loop – a unified theory of Russian history, with the idea that neo-Tsarist Russia is now creeping back to its Eurasian past-and-future empire based on statism, sovereignty, and sobornost.
- Lessons from Byzantium – what a historical documentary tells about today’s Russia.
- 10 Myths about Russia’s Demography – to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of Russia’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
- Regathering of the Russian Lands? – the implications of Yanukovych’s electoral triumph in Ukraine, the redrawing of the Eurasian energy map, Russia’s continuing economic and demographic resilience, and the volatility of the Caucasus.
- SSR #14: Russia’s Return to the Future – summary of Sisyphean Loop & other points…
Americas & Africa, The Peripheries,
- Victimized Venezuela – Chavez’ bombastic rhetoric clouds the fact that Venezuela has achieved great socio-economic progress under his rule.
- SSR #15: Africa, the Dark Continent – the coming Malthusian crisis and neo-colonial exploitation…
Sublime Strategic Reports
Finally, the SSRs are a series of Anatoly Karlin’s posts on the global trends, regions, and geopolitical dynamics that will shape the 21st century. They are meant to serve as bases of discussion in the forum to which they are posted.
- Principles of Metahistory
- The Meaning of Sublime Oblivion
- Shifting Winds: The End of Pax Americana
- The World System: Economy, Society, Demography
- Decade Forecast: The Geopolitics of Scarcity Industrialism
- Towards Singularity
- Principles of Metapolitics
- There Will Be War!
- Discontinuities & Apocalypse
- Europe, The Black Continent
- America: The Waning Superpower
- Dar al-Islam:
- China, The Last Superpower
- Eurasia: Russia’s Sisyphean Loop
- Periphery: The Dark Continents
This series forms the building block of Sublime Oblivion – The Book.